Liverpool Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División Apertura sees Liverpool Montevideo take on Defensor Sporting on Saturday 14 February, kicking off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estadio Belvedere. Liverpool Montevideo are 1st with 30 points from 13 games (top of the table), while Defensor Sporting sit 13th on 12 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.4 for Liverpool Montevideo and 1.1 for Defensor Sporting. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Liverpool Montevideo 45%, draw 23%, Defensor Sporting 31%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.83.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Liverpool Montevideo 1–1 Defensor Sporting. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Liverpool Montevideo45%fair 2.21 · @2.25
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.00
Defensor Sporting31%fair 3.19 · @3.20
2.46Expected goals
1.37Liverpool Montevideo xG
1.08Defensor Sporting xG
56%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–19%
2–19%
0–09%
2–08%
From our goals model: Liverpool Montevideo 1.4 – 1.1 Defensor Sporting expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Liverpool Montevideo to win✗
45%
2.21
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Liverpool Montevideo / FT Liverpool Montevideo✗
25%
3.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.50
–
Form
Liverpool Montevideo
No recent results on record.
Defensor Sporting
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Liverpool Montevideo and Defensor Sporting.
What is the prediction for Liverpool Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Liverpool Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
On our numbers Liverpool Montevideo have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Defensor Sporting 31%.
How many goals will there be in Liverpool Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Liverpool Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
Our predicted score is Liverpool Montevideo 1–1 Defensor Sporting, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Liverpool Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
Liverpool Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Belvedere.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
