Iwaki vs Matsumoto Yamaga Prediction, Odds & Analysis – 17 May 2026

Quick tips for this match

ResultIwaki to win ✗61% · @1.85

Double chanceIwaki or draw ✓85% · @1.25

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.91

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.57

Iwaki vs Matsumoto Yamaga preview and prediction

The match

Iwaki host Matsumoto Yamaga in the J2 League on Sunday 17 May, with kick-off at 06:00 (WAT) at Iwaki Greenfield.

Form guide

Iwaki's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Ventforet Kofu 0–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.

Matsumoto Yamaga's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat FC Gifu 3–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.

Matsumoto Yamaga arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.

Goals outlook

Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.9 for Iwaki and 0.9 for Matsumoto Yamaga. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 51%.

Betting angles

Win chances: Iwaki 61%, draw 24%, Matsumoto Yamaga 15%.
Safer route: Iwaki or draw (85%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Iwaki to win at 1.85 – 61% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.

Our prediction

Our pre-match pick was Iwaki or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Iwaki 1–0 Matsumoto Yamaga. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.

Win chances

Iwaki61%fair 1.64 · @1.85

Draw24%fair 4.14 · @3.40

Matsumoto Yamaga15%fair 6.73 · @3.40

2.81Expected goals

1.94Iwaki xG

0.87Matsumoto Yamaga xG

51%Both score

53%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–012%

2–011%

1–110%

2–110%

3–07%

3–16%

From our goals model: Iwaki 1.9 – 0.9 Matsumoto Yamaga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Iwaki to win ✗	61%	1.64	1.85 ▲
Double chance	Iwaki or draw ✓	85%	1.17	1.25 ▲
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	51%	1.95	1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	77%	1.30	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	53%	1.88	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	69%	1.45	–
Half-time result	Iwaki ahead at half-time ✗	45%	2.23	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Iwaki / FT Iwaki ✗	40%	2.52	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0 ✗	12%	8.57	–

Form

Iwaki – last 6

LLLLWW

9 May	vs Ventforet Kofu	0–1	L
6 May	@ Omiya Ardija	2–3	L
29 Apr	vs FC Gifu	0–1	L
25 Apr	@ Consadole Sapporo	1–2	L
19 Apr	vs Parceiro Nagano	1–0	W
12 Apr	@ Fukushima United	3–2	W

1.2Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Matsumoto Yamaga – last 6

WLLLWW

6 May	@ FC Gifu	3–0	W
3 May	vs Ventforet Kofu	0–1	L
26 Apr	vs Parceiro Nagano	0–1	L
18 Apr	@ Consadole Sapporo	1–2	L
12 Apr	vs Omiya Ardija	4–1	W
29 Mar	@ Fukushima United	3–1	W

1.8Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

50%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Albirex Niigata	16	10	2	4	-1	32
2	Yokohama FC	16	9	4	3	+15	31
3	Kataller Toyama	16	9	4	3	+14	31
4	Vegalta Sendai	16	9	3	4	+13	30
5	Omiya Ardija	16	8	6	2	+12	30
6	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	16	8	5	3	+9	29
7	Consadole Sapporo	16	8	2	6	+3	26
8	Iwaki	16	7	2	7	+4	23
9	Jubilo Iwata	16	6	5	5	+2	23
10	Shonan Bellmare	16	5	8	3	+1	23
11	Oita Trinita	16	5	7	4	+5	22
12	Blaublitz Akita	16	5	5	6	0	20
13	Sagan Tosu	16	6	2	8	-3	20
14	Montedio Yamagata	16	6	1	9	-2	19
15	Tokushima Vortis	16	5	2	9	-5	17
16	Fujieda MYFC	16	3	7	6	-4	16
17	Vanraure Hachinohe	16	4	2	10	-15	14
18	Tochigi City	16	3	3	10	-10	12
19	Imabari	16	3	3	10	-16	12
20	Ventforet Kofu	16	3	3	10	-22	12

Team

Pts

-1

+15

+14

+13

+12

-3

-2

-5

-4

-15

-10

-16

-22

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Iwaki vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Our pick is Iwaki or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Iwaki vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

On our numbers Iwaki have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Matsumoto Yamaga 15%.

How many goals will there be in Iwaki vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Iwaki vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Our predicted score is Iwaki 1–0 Matsumoto Yamaga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.

When is Iwaki vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Iwaki vs Matsumoto Yamaga (J2 League) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at Iwaki Greenfield.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

By day

Match result

Goals

Exact outcomes