Matsumoto Yamaga vs Omiya Ardija Prediction, Odds & Analysis – 12 Apr 2026

Quick tips for this match

ResultOmiya Ardija to win ✗62% · @1.83

Double chanceOmiya Ardija or draw ✗86% · @1.20

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.57

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.22

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.16

Matsumoto Yamaga vs Omiya Ardija preview and prediction

The match

The J2 League sees Matsumoto Yamaga take on Omiya Ardija on Sunday 12 April, kicking off at 06:00 (WAT) at Sunpro Alwin.

Form guide

Matsumoto Yamaga's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Fukushima United 3–1 away. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.

Omiya Ardija's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat FC Gifu 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.8 goals a game.

Goals outlook

Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 1.0 for Matsumoto Yamaga and 2.2 for Omiya Ardija. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 59% and both teams to score at 61%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.

Betting angles

Win chances: Matsumoto Yamaga 14%, draw 24%, Omiya Ardija 62%.
Safer route: Omiya Ardija or draw (86%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.57.
Value angle: Omiya Ardija to win at 1.83 – 62% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.

Our prediction

Our pre-match pick was Omiya Ardija or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Matsumoto Yamaga 1–2 Omiya Ardija. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.

Win chances

Matsumoto Yamaga14%fair 7.05 · @3.75

Draw24%fair 4.25 · @3.50

Omiya Ardija62%fair 1.61 · @1.83

3.25Expected goals

1.03Matsumoto Yamaga xG

2.22Omiya Ardija xG

61%Both score

59%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–210%

0–210%

1–19%

0–19%

1–37%

0–37%

From our goals model: Matsumoto Yamaga 1.0 – 2.2 Omiya Ardija expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Omiya Ardija to win ✗	62%	1.61	1.83 ▲
Double chance	Omiya Ardija or draw ✗	86%	1.17	1.20
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	61%	1.65	1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	80%	1.25	1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	59%	1.69	1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	62%	1.60	1.42
Half-time result	Omiya Ardija ahead at half-time ✗	48%	2.10	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Omiya Ardija / FT Omiya Ardija ✗	42%	2.38	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	10%	10.16	–

Form

Matsumoto Yamaga – last 6

WWWLWL

29 Mar	@ Fukushima United	3–1	W
14 Mar	@ Parceiro Nagano	5–0	W
7 Mar	vs Consadole Sapporo	3–0	W
28 Feb	@ Ventforet Kofu	0–1	L
21 Feb	@ Jubilo Iwata	2–1	W
14 Feb	@ Fujieda MYFC	0–2	L

2.2Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

33%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Omiya Ardija – last 6

WLWLWW

4 Apr	vs FC Gifu	3–0	W
28 Mar	@ Ventforet Kofu	1–2	L
21 Mar	@ Jubilo Iwata	4–1	W
14 Mar	vs Fujieda MYFC	1–2	L
28 Feb	@ Parceiro Nagano	2–1	W
21 Feb	vs Fukushima United	6–0	W

2.8Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

67%Both scored

100%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Albirex Niigata	16	10	2	4	-1	32
2	Yokohama FC	16	9	4	3	+15	31
3	Kataller Toyama	16	9	4	3	+14	31
4	Vegalta Sendai	16	9	3	4	+13	30
5	Omiya Ardija	16	8	6	2	+12	30
6	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	16	8	5	3	+9	29
7	Consadole Sapporo	16	8	2	6	+3	26
8	Iwaki	16	7	2	7	+4	23
9	Jubilo Iwata	16	6	5	5	+2	23
10	Shonan Bellmare	16	5	8	3	+1	23
11	Oita Trinita	16	5	7	4	+5	22
12	Blaublitz Akita	16	5	5	6	0	20
13	Sagan Tosu	16	6	2	8	-3	20
14	Montedio Yamagata	16	6	1	9	-2	19
15	Tokushima Vortis	16	5	2	9	-5	17
16	Fujieda MYFC	16	3	7	6	-4	16
17	Vanraure Hachinohe	16	4	2	10	-15	14
18	Tochigi City	16	3	3	10	-10	12
19	Imabari	16	3	3	10	-16	12
20	Ventforet Kofu	16	3	3	10	-22	12

Team

Pts

-1

+15

+14

+13

+12

-3

-2

-5

-4

-15

-10

-16

-22

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Omiya Ardija?

Our pick is Omiya Ardija or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Matsumoto Yamaga vs Omiya Ardija?

On our numbers Matsumoto Yamaga have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Omiya Ardija 62%.

How many goals will there be in Matsumoto Yamaga vs Omiya Ardija?

We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Omiya Ardija?

Our predicted score is Matsumoto Yamaga 1–2 Omiya Ardija, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.

When is Matsumoto Yamaga vs Omiya Ardija?

Matsumoto Yamaga vs Omiya Ardija (J2 League) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at Sunpro Alwin.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

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