Value bet: Montedio Yamagata to win @ 1.90 – our chance 61% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultMontedio Yamagata to win ✗61% · @1.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✗82% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.72
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.37
Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Montedio Yamagata preview and prediction
The match
The J2 League sees Thespakusatsu Gunma take on Montedio Yamagata on Saturday 21 February, kicking off at 06:00 (WAT) at Shoda Shoyu Stadium Gunma.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 0.8 for Thespakusatsu Gunma and 1.7 for Montedio Yamagata. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 57%.
Value angle: Montedio Yamagata to win at 1.90 – 61% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Thespakusatsu Gunma 0–1 Montedio Yamagata. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Thespakusatsu Gunma21%fair 4.69 · @3.30
Draw18%fair 5.68 · @3.30
Montedio Yamagata61%fair 1.64 · @1.90
2.52Expected goals
0.83Thespakusatsu Gunma xG
1.69Montedio Yamagata xG
57%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–08%
1–07%
From our goals model: Thespakusatsu Gunma 0.8 – 1.7 Montedio Yamagata expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Montedio Yamagata to win✗
61%
1.64
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
82%
1.21
1.28 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.72
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.26
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
1.88
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Montedio Yamagata / FT Montedio Yamagata✗
36%
2.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.37
–
Form
Thespakusatsu Gunma – last 1
L
14 Feb
vs Vanraure Hachinohe
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Montedio Yamagata – last 1
W
15 Feb
@ Tochigi SC
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Thespakusatsu Gunma and Montedio Yamagata.
What is the prediction for Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Montedio Yamagata?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Montedio Yamagata?
On our numbers Thespakusatsu Gunma have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Montedio Yamagata 61%.
How many goals will there be in Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Montedio Yamagata?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Montedio Yamagata?
Our predicted score is Thespakusatsu Gunma 0–1 Montedio Yamagata, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Montedio Yamagata?
Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Montedio Yamagata (J2 League) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at Shoda Shoyu Stadium Gunma.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Sagamihara1
Matsumoto Yamaga2
Fukushima United0
Parceiro Nagano1
Nara Club2
Ehime FC2