Value bet: Surkhon to win @ 3.50 – our chance 35% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultXorazm to win ✓39% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓11% · fair 8.77
Xorazm vs Surkhon preview and prediction
The match
Xorazm host Surkhon in the Super League on Tuesday 28 July, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT) at Xorazm Stadium. Xorazm are 13th with 26 points from 27 games (in the bottom half), while Surkhon sit 10th on 31 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Xorazm's last 5: LLLDL Most recently they lost to Pakhtakor 1–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Surkhon's last 5: LWLWL Most recently they lost to Dinamo Samarqand 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Surkhon arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Xorazm and 1.1 for Surkhon. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Xorazm 39%, draw 25%, Surkhon 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Surkhon to win at 3.50 – 35% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 1.85. Predicted score: Xorazm 1–1 Surkhon. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Xorazm39%fair 2.54 · @2.00
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @2.90
Surkhon35%fair 2.84 · @3.50
2.38Expected goals
1.23Xorazm xG
1.15Surkhon xG
53%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–111%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Xorazm 1.2 – 1.1 Surkhon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Xorazm to win✓
39%
2.54
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Xorazm / FT Xorazm✓
22%
4.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
11%
8.77
–
Form
Xorazm – last 6
LLLDLD
21 Jul
@ Pakhtakor
1–2
L
16 Jul
@ Sogdiana
0–2
L
4 May
vs Andijan
0–3
L
29 Apr
@ Qizilqum
0–0
D
24 Apr
vs Neftchi
0–2
L
14 Apr
vs Kokand-1912
2–2
D
0.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Surkhon – last 6
LWLWLL
23 Jul
vs Dinamo Samarqand
1–2
L
18 Jul
@ Andijan
2–1
W
28 Apr
@ Sogdiana
2–5
L
22 Apr
vs Mash'al
2–1
W
17 Apr
vs Qizilqum
0–1
L
12 Apr
@ Navbahor
0–2
L
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Xorazm and Surkhon.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Xorazm vs Surkhon?
On our numbers Xorazm have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Surkhon 35%.
How many goals will there be in Xorazm vs Surkhon?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Xorazm vs Surkhon?
Our predicted score is Xorazm 1–1 Surkhon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Xorazm vs Surkhon?
Xorazm vs Surkhon (Super League) kicks off on Tuesday 28 July 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Xorazm Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
