Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 6.05
Neftchi vs Buxoro preview and prediction
The match
Buxoro travel to Istiqlol Stadium in the Super League on Thursday 16 July (16:00 WAT) to face Neftchi. Neftchi are 1st with 61 points from 26 games (top of the table), while Buxoro sit 7th on 42 points (in the top half). A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Neftchi's last 5: LDWWW Most recently they lost to Zenit 1–4 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Buxoro's last 5: WLLDW Most recently they beat Mash'al 1–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.9 for Neftchi and 0.5 for Buxoro. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 49%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Neftchi 71%, draw 19%, Buxoro 10%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.50.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Neftchi to win – a 71% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Neftchi 1–0 Buxoro. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Neftchi71%fair 1.41 · @1.30
Draw19%fair 5.28 · @4.40
Buxoro10%fair 9.99 · @9.00
2.45Expected goals
1.91Neftchi xG
0.54Buxoro xG
49%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–016%
3–010%
1–19%
0–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Neftchi 1.9 – 0.5 Buxoro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Neftchi to win✓
71%
1.41
1.30
Double chance
Neftchi or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.05
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Half-time result
Neftchi ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Neftchi / FT Neftchi✗
45%
2.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
6.05
–
Form
Neftchi – last 6
LDWWWL
8 Jul
@ Zenit
1–4
L
3 May
@ Olmaliq
0–0
D
29 Apr
vs Kokand-1912
4–0
W
24 Apr
@ Xorazm
2–0
W
14 Apr
@ Bunyodkor
1–0
W
9 Apr
vs Pakhtakor
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Buxoro – last 6
WLLDWW
27 Apr
@ Mash'al
1–0
W
22 Apr
vs Pakhtakor
0–1
L
17 Apr
@ Olmaliq
2–3
L
13 Apr
@ Nasaf
1–1
D
9 Apr
vs Qizilqum
2–0
W
19 Mar
vs Dinamo Samarqand
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Neftchi and Buxoro.
Our pick is Neftchi to win with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Neftchi vs Buxoro?
On our numbers Neftchi have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Buxoro 10%.
How many goals will there be in Neftchi vs Buxoro?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Neftchi vs Buxoro?
Our predicted score is Neftchi 1–0 Buxoro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Neftchi vs Buxoro?
Neftchi vs Buxoro (Super League) kicks off on Thursday 16 July 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Istiqlol Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
