Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.29 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.29Odds
2
Value bet: Paredes to win @ 1.95 – our chance 64% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultParedes to win ✗64% · @1.95
Double chanceParedes or draw ✗86% · @1.29
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗69% · fair 1.45
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗21% · fair 4.79
São João Ver vs Paredes preview and prediction
The match
Paredes travel to face São João Ver in the Liga 3 on Sunday 15 March (16:00 WAT). São João Ver are 9th with 9 points from 9 games (in the top half), while Paredes sit 1st on 22 points (top of the table). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
São João Ver's last 3: DLW Most recently they drew with SC Braga B 1–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Paredes's last 4: DLWW Most recently they drew with Fafe 0–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 0.5 for São João Ver and 1.5 for Paredes. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: São João Ver 14%, draw 22%, Paredes 64%.
Safer route: Paredes or draw (86%) at 1.29.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Paredes to win at 1.95 – 64% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Paredes or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.29, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: São João Ver 0–1 Paredes. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
São João Ver14%fair 6.96 · @3.40
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @3.25
Paredes64%fair 1.56 · @1.95
1.95Expected goals
0.48São João Ver xG
1.47Paredes xG
49%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–121%
0–215%
0–014%
1–110%
0–37%
1–27%
From our goals model: São João Ver 0.5 – 1.5 Paredes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Paredes to win✗
64%
1.56
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Paredes or draw✗
86%
1.17
1.29 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
87%
1.15
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Paredes / FT Paredes✗
37%
2.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
21%
4.79
–
Form
São João Ver – last 3
DLW
8 Mar
vs SC Braga B
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ AD Marco 09
1–2
L
21 Feb
vs Fafe
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Paredes – last 4
DLWW
8 Mar
vs Fafe
0–0
D
1 Mar
@ SC Braga B
0–1
L
22 Feb
vs Sanjoanense
3–1
W
14 Feb
@ AD Marco 09
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between São João Ver and Paredes.
What is the prediction for São João Ver vs Paredes?
Our pick is Paredes or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win São João Ver vs Paredes?
On our numbers São João Ver have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Paredes 64%.
How many goals will there be in São João Ver vs Paredes?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for São João Ver vs Paredes?
Our predicted score is São João Ver 0–1 Paredes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is São João Ver vs Paredes?
São João Ver vs Paredes (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Sanjoanense2
SC Braga B2
Academica2