Value bet: Mafra to win @ 3.50 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultAcademica to win46% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–011% · fair 9.14
Academica vs Mafra preview and prediction
The match
Academica host Mafra in the Liga 3 on Sunday 15 March, with kick-off at 21:15 (WAT).
Form guide
Mafra's last 5: LLDLW Most recently they lost to Guimaraes B 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Academica and 1.1 for Mafra. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Academica 46%, draw 23%, Mafra 32%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Mafra to win at 3.50 – 32% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 1.85. Predicted score: Academica 1–1 Mafra. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Academica46%fair 2.18 · @2.05
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.00
Mafra32%fair 3.17 · @3.50
2.58Expected goals
1.44Academica xG
1.14Mafra xG
53%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Academica 1.4 – 1.1 Mafra expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Academica to win
46%
2.18
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win
77%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
53%
1.88
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
52%
1.91
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
74%
1.35
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Academica / FT Academica
26%
3.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
11%
9.14
–
Form
Academica
No recent results on record.
Mafra – last 5
LLDLW
8 Mar
vs Guimaraes B
1–2
L
4 Mar
@ União Santarém
1–3
L
27 Feb
@ Trofense
1–1
D
21 Feb
@ Amarante
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Varzim
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Academica and Mafra.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Academica vs Mafra?
On our numbers Academica have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Mafra 32%.
How many goals will there be in Academica vs Mafra?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Academica vs Mafra?
Our predicted score is Academica 1–1 Mafra, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Academica vs Mafra?
Academica vs Mafra (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 21:15 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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