Value bet: CF Os Belenenses to win @ 2.50 – our chance 44% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultCF Os Belenenses to win44% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win77% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–111% · fair 9.13
Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses preview and prediction
The match
The Liga 3 sees Mafra take on CF Os Belenenses on Sunday 22 March, kicking off at 21:00 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal de Mafra. Mafra are 5th with 12 points from 9 games (in the top half), while CF Os Belenenses sit 1st on 21 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Mafra's last 5: LLDLW Most recently they lost to Guimaraes B 1–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Mafra and 1.4 for CF Os Belenenses. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mafra 33%, draw 23%, CF Os Belenenses 44%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.80.
Value angle: CF Os Belenenses to win at 2.50 – 44% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 56% chance at odds of 1.80. Predicted score: Mafra 1–1 CF Os Belenenses. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mafra33%fair 3.06 · @2.62
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @2.90
CF Os Belenenses44%fair 2.28 · @2.50
2.54Expected goals
1.15Mafra xG
1.39CF Os Belenenses xG
56%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–09%
1–29%
0–08%
0–28%
From our goals model: Mafra 1.2 – 1.4 CF Os Belenenses expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CF Os Belenenses to win
44%
2.28
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
77%
1.31
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
56%
1.80
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
53%
1.87
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
75%
1.34
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT CF Os Belenenses / FT CF Os Belenenses
25%
4.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
11%
9.13
–
Form
Mafra – last 5
LLDLW
8 Mar
vs Guimaraes B
1–2
L
4 Mar
@ União Santarém
1–3
L
27 Feb
@ Trofense
1–1
D
21 Feb
@ Amarante
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Varzim
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
CF Os Belenenses – last 2
LD
1 Mar
vs Amarante
1–2
L
15 Feb
@ Guimaraes B
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mafra and CF Os Belenenses.
What is the prediction for Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses?
On our numbers Mafra have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 23% and CF Os Belenenses 44%.
How many goals will there be in Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses?
Our predicted score is Mafra 1–1 CF Os Belenenses, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses?
Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Mafra.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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