Value bet: Trofense to win @ 3.30 – our chance 34% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultVarzim to win44% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win78% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–013% · fair 7.52
Varzim vs Trofense preview and prediction
The match
Varzim host Trofense in the Liga 3 on Saturday 21 February, with kick-off at 18:30 (WAT). Varzim are 6th with 12 points from 9 games (in the top half), while Trofense sit 10th on 5 points (in the top half).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.2 for Varzim and 1.0 for Trofense. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Varzim 44%, draw 22%, Trofense 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Trofense to win at 3.30 – 34% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 1.91. Predicted score: Varzim 1–1 Trofense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Varzim44%fair 2.28 · @2.05
Draw22%fair 4.51 · @3.10
Trofense34%fair 2.95 · @3.30
2.20Expected goals
1.20Varzim xG
1.00Trofense xG
51%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–111%
0–011%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Varzim 1.2 – 1.0 Trofense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Varzim to win
44%
2.28
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win
78%
1.28
1.35 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
51%
1.95
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
82%
1.22
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Varzim / FT Varzim
23%
4.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
13%
7.52
–
Form
Varzim – last 1
L
15 Feb
@ Mafra
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Trofense
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Varzim and Trofense.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Varzim vs Trofense?
On our numbers Varzim have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Trofense 34%.
How many goals will there be in Varzim vs Trofense?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Varzim vs Trofense?
Our predicted score is Varzim 1–1 Trofense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Varzim vs Trofense?
Varzim vs Trofense (Liga 3) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Amarante1
Academica