Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.28Odds
2
Value bet: Belgium to win @ 1.95 – our chance 61% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBelgium to win ✗61% · @1.95
Double chanceBelgium or draw ✓85% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.72
Mexico vs Belgium preview and prediction
The match
Mexico host Belgium in the Friendlies on Wednesday 1 April, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT) at Soldier Field.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 0.8 for Mexico and 1.8 for Belgium. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mexico 15%, draw 24%, Belgium 61%.
Safer route: Belgium or draw (85%) at 1.28.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Belgium to win at 1.95 – 61% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Belgium or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.28, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Mexico 0–1 Belgium. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mexico15%fair 6.48 · @3.60
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @3.55
Belgium61%fair 1.64 · @1.95
2.65Expected goals
0.81Mexico xG
1.84Belgium xG
56%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–37%
0–07%
From our goals model: Mexico 0.8 – 1.8 Belgium expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Belgium to win✗
61%
1.64
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Belgium or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.28 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.78
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.99
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
1.33
Half-time result
Belgium ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Belgium / FT Belgium✗
39%
2.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.72
–
Form
Mexico – last 2
DW
29 Mar
vs Portugal
0–0
D
26 Feb
vs Iceland
4–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Belgium
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mexico and Belgium.
Our pick is Belgium or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Mexico vs Belgium?
On our numbers Mexico have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Belgium 61%.
How many goals will there be in Mexico vs Belgium?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mexico vs Belgium?
Our predicted score is Mexico 0–1 Belgium, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Mexico vs Belgium?
Mexico vs Belgium (Friendlies) kicks off on Wednesday 1 April 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Soldier Field.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.