Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Portugal to win @ 1.68 – our chance 67% vs 60% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPortugal to win ✓67% · @1.68
Double chancePortugal or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✓10% · fair 9.97
USA vs Portugal preview and prediction
The match
The Friendlies sees USA take on Portugal on Wednesday 1 April, kicking off at 00:00 (WAT) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 1.0 for USA and 2.3 for Portugal. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 61% and both teams to score at 62%.
Betting angles
Win chances: USA 14%, draw 19%, Portugal 67%.
Safer route: Portugal or draw (86%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.60.
Value angle: Portugal to win at 1.68 – 67% on our numbers against 60% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Portugal or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: USA 0–2 Portugal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
USA14%fair 7.10 · @4.50
Draw19%fair 5.29 · @3.95
Portugal67%fair 1.49 · @1.68
3.28Expected goals
0.97USA xG
2.31Portugal xG
62%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–210%
1–210%
0–19%
1–18%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: USA 1.0 – 2.3 Portugal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Portugal to win✓
67%
1.49
1.68 ▲
Double chance
Portugal or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.61
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.63
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
60%
1.65
1.50
Half-time result
Portugal ahead at half-time✓
50%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Portugal / FT Portugal✓
44%
2.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✓
10%
9.97
–
Form
USA
No recent results on record.
Portugal – last 1
D
29 Mar
@ Mexico
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between USA and Portugal.
Our pick is Portugal or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win USA vs Portugal?
On our numbers USA have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Portugal 67%.
How many goals will there be in USA vs Portugal?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for USA vs Portugal?
Our predicted score is USA 0–2 Portugal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is USA vs Portugal?
USA vs Portugal (Friendlies) kicks off on Wednesday 1 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Argentina5
Zambia0
Brazil3
Croatia1
Mexico1
Belgium1