Mexico vs Portugal prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.37 · bookmaker 1.38 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Mexico 0.8 – 1.6 Portugal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Portugal shade it despite being away from home – 58% to win, against 22% for Mexico.
Mexico have taken 3 points from their last 1 matches (1W 0D 0L), scoring 4.0 and conceding 0.0 per game.
We expect around 2.4 goals (0.8 for Mexico, 1.6 for Portugal). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 53%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (14%), 1–1 (12%), 0–2 (11%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 73% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.38 is close to our fair price of 1.37.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Portugal to win ✗ | 58% | 1.73 | 1.77 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 53% | 1.87 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 72% | 1.39 | 1.25 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 52% | 1.91 | 2.00 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.37 | 1.38 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 44% | 2.27 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Portugal / FT Portugal ✗ | 34% | 2.96 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 14% | 6.91 | – |
Form
Mexico – last 1
| 26 Feb | vs Iceland | 4–0 | W |
Portugal
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mexico and Portugal.
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What is the prediction for Mexico vs Portugal?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Mexico vs Portugal?
On our numbers Mexico have a 22% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Portugal 58%.
How many goals will there be in Mexico vs Portugal?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is Mexico vs Portugal?
Mexico vs Portugal (Friendlies) kicks off on Sunday 29 March 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Azteca.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.