Deportivo Garcilaso vs UTC Cajamarca Prediction, Odds & Analysis – 17 May 2026

Quick tips for this match

ResultDeportivo Garcilaso to win ✓57% · @1.90

Double chanceDeportivo Garcilaso or draw ✓79% · @1.22

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.80

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.88

Deportivo Garcilaso vs UTC Cajamarca preview and prediction

The match

Deportivo Garcilaso host UTC Cajamarca in the Primera División on Sunday 17 May, with kick-off at 19:15 (WAT) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega. Deportivo Garcilaso are 4th with 29 points from 16 games (in the top four), while UTC Cajamarca sit 18th on 6 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 23 points shows the difference in quality this season.

Form guide

Deportivo Garcilaso's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat Alianza Atletico 2–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.

UTC Cajamarca's last 5: LLDLD Most recently they lost to FC Cajamarca 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.

Deportivo Garcilaso arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.

Goals outlook

Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.7 for Deportivo Garcilaso and 0.9 for UTC Cajamarca. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 54%.

Betting angles

Win chances: Deportivo Garcilaso 57%, draw 22%, UTC Cajamarca 21%.
Safer route: Deportivo Garcilaso or draw (79%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Deportivo Garcilaso to win at 1.90 – 57% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.

Our prediction

Our pre-match pick was Deportivo Garcilaso or draw – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Deportivo Garcilaso 1–0 UTC Cajamarca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.

Win chances

Deportivo Garcilaso57%fair 1.77 · @1.90

Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.35

UTC Cajamarca21%fair 4.75 · @4.10

2.58Expected goals

1.68Deportivo Garcilaso xG

0.90UTC Cajamarca xG

54%Both score

47%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–013%

1–111%

2–011%

2–110%

0–08%

0–17%

From our goals model: Deportivo Garcilaso 1.7 – 0.9 UTC Cajamarca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Deportivo Garcilaso to win ✓	57%	1.77	1.90 ▲
Double chance	Deportivo Garcilaso or draw ✓	79%	1.27	1.22
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	54%	1.86	1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	71%	1.40	1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	53%	1.90	1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	74%	1.36	1.28
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	42%	2.37	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Deportivo Garcilaso / FT Deportivo Garcilaso ✗	34%	2.93	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0 ✗	13%	7.88	–

Form

Deportivo Garcilaso – last 6

WWWLLD

11 May	vs Alianza Atletico	2–1	W
4 May	@ Club Deportivo Los Chankas	1–0	W
28 Apr	vs FBC Melgar	1–0	W
23 Apr	@ Universitario	1–4	L
18 Apr	@ Sport Huancayo	1–2	L
15 Mar	vs Alianza Lima	1–1	D

1.2Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

67%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

UTC Cajamarca – last 6

LLDLDW

8 May	vs FC Cajamarca	1–2	L
4 May	@ FBC Melgar	0–2	L
15 Apr	vs Sport Huancayo	2–2	D
15 Mar	@ Universitario	0–2	L
22 Feb	@ ADT	2–2	D
13 Feb	vs Cusco	1–0	W

1.0Scored / game

1.7Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	33	20	9	4	+30	69
2	Universitario	33	17	10	6	+20	61
3	FBC Melgar	33	16	9	8	+18	57
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	33	16	7	10	+15	55
5	Sporting Cristal	33	15	6	12	+15	51
6	Cusco	33	16	3	14	-1	51
7	Cienciano	33	15	5	13	+8	50
8	Sport Huancayo	33	15	5	13	-1	50
9	Alianza Atletico	33	14	7	12	+1	49
10	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	33	13	9	11	-12	48
11	Sport Boys	33	12	10	11	+2	46
12	Juan Pablo II College	33	11	8	14	-11	41
13	Comerciantes Unidos	33	8	13	12	-3	37
14	Atletico Grau	33	10	7	16	-9	37
15	ADT	33	7	11	15	-12	32
16	FC Cajamarca	33	8	7	18	-19	31
17	UCV Moquegua	33	7	9	17	-21	30
18	UTC Cajamarca	33	5	9	19	-20	19

Team

Pts

+30

+20

+18

+15

+15

-1

-1

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

-12

Sport Boys

Juan Pablo II College

-11

-3

-9

-12

-19

-21

-20

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Deportivo Garcilaso vs UTC Cajamarca?

Our pick is Deportivo Garcilaso or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Deportivo Garcilaso vs UTC Cajamarca?

On our numbers Deportivo Garcilaso have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 22% and UTC Cajamarca 21%.

How many goals will there be in Deportivo Garcilaso vs UTC Cajamarca?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Deportivo Garcilaso vs UTC Cajamarca?

Our predicted score is Deportivo Garcilaso 1–0 UTC Cajamarca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Deportivo Garcilaso vs UTC Cajamarca?

Deportivo Garcilaso vs UTC Cajamarca (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 19:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

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