Value bet: ADT to win @ 1.64 – our chance 65% vs 61% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultADT to win ✓65% · @1.64
Double chanceADT or draw ✓89% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.72
ADT vs Comerciantes Unidos preview and prediction
The match
Comerciantes Unidos travel to face ADT in the Primera División on Sunday 17 May (17:00 WAT). ADT are 16th with 12 points from 16 games (in the bottom three), while Comerciantes Unidos sit 13th on 16 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
ADT's last 5: WLLDL Most recently they beat Club Deportivo Los Chankas 4–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Comerciantes Unidos's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Cienciano 0–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Comerciantes Unidos arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.9 for ADT and 0.7 for Comerciantes Unidos. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: ADT 65%, draw 24%, Comerciantes Unidos 11%.
Safer route: ADT or draw (89%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.91.
Value angle: ADT to win at 1.64 – 65% on our numbers against 61% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: ADT 1–0 Comerciantes Unidos. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
ADT65%fair 1.54 · @1.64
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.65
Comerciantes Unidos11%fair 9.15 · @5.40
2.53Expected goals
1.88ADT xG
0.66Comerciantes Unidos xG
54%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–08%
From our goals model: ADT 1.9 – 0.7 Comerciantes Unidos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
ADT to win✓
65%
1.54
1.64 ▲
Double chance
ADT or draw✓
89%
1.12
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Half-time result
ADT ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT ADT / FT ADT✓
42%
2.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.72
–
Form
ADT – last 6
WLLDLD
27 Apr
vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
4–0
W
14 Apr
vs Alianza Lima
0–1
L
4 Apr
@ Cienciano
2–3
L
20 Mar
vs FBC Melgar
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Juan Pablo II College
2–3
L
27 Feb
@ Alianza Atletico
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Comerciantes Unidos – last 6
LWDWWL
2 May
@ Cienciano
0–1
L
22 Apr
vs Alianza Atletico
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Sport Huancayo
1–1
D
13 Mar
@ FC Cajamarca
4–3
W
1 Mar
vs Atletico Grau
3–1
W
23 Feb
@ Cusco
1–3
L
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between ADT and Comerciantes Unidos.
What is the prediction for ADT vs Comerciantes Unidos?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win ADT vs Comerciantes Unidos?
On our numbers ADT have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Comerciantes Unidos 11%.
How many goals will there be in ADT vs Comerciantes Unidos?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for ADT vs Comerciantes Unidos?
Our predicted score is ADT 1–0 Comerciantes Unidos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is ADT vs Comerciantes Unidos?
ADT vs Comerciantes Unidos (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
