Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.20
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Sporting Cristal to win @ 1.76 – our chance 61% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultSporting Cristal to win61% · @1.76
Double chanceSporting Cristal or draw81% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score57% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–011% · fair 9.34
Sporting Cristal vs Cusco preview and prediction
The match
Sporting Cristal host Cusco in the Primera División on Sunday 3 May, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at Estadio Alberto Gallardo. Sporting Cristal are 2nd with 32 points from 16 games (in the top four), while Cusco sit 10th on 24 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Sporting Cristal's last 5: WLLWL Most recently they beat Junior 2–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cusco's last 5: LWLLL Most recently they lost to Independiente Medellin 0–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Sporting Cristal arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.9 for Sporting Cristal and 1.0 for Cusco. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 57%.
Safer route: Sporting Cristal or draw (81%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Sporting Cristal to win at 1.76 – 61% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Sporting Cristal or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Sporting Cristal 1–0 Cusco. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sporting Cristal61%fair 1.64 · @1.76
Draw20%fair 4.93 · @3.65
Cusco19%fair 5.37 · @4.40
2.90Expected goals
1.94Sporting Cristal xG
0.95Cusco xG
57%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
2–010%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: Sporting Cristal 1.9 – 1.0 Cusco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sporting Cristal to win
61%
1.64
1.76 ▲
Double chance
Sporting Cristal or draw
81%
1.23
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
57%
1.75
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
76%
1.32
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
53%
1.88
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
68%
1.46
1.35
Half-time result
Sporting Cristal ahead at half-time
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sporting Cristal / FT Sporting Cristal
38%
2.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
11%
9.34
–
Form
Sporting Cristal – last 6
WLLWLW
29 Apr
vs Junior
2–0
W
22 Apr
@ Atletico Grau
1–4
L
16 Apr
@ Palmeiras
1–2
L
9 Apr
vs Cerro Porteno
1–0
W
3 Apr
vs UCV Moquegua
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Sport Boys
3–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Cusco – last 6
LWLLLL
1 May
@ Independiente Medellin
0–1
L
23 Apr
vs FC Cajamarca
1–0
W
19 Apr
@ Alianza Lima
0–8
L
14 Apr
@ Estudiantes L.P.
1–2
L
9 Apr
vs Flamengo
0–2
L
16 Mar
vs Cienciano
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sporting Cristal and Cusco.
What is the prediction for Sporting Cristal vs Cusco?
Our pick is Sporting Cristal or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Sporting Cristal vs Cusco?
On our numbers Sporting Cristal have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Cusco 19%.
How many goals will there be in Sporting Cristal vs Cusco?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sporting Cristal vs Cusco?
Our predicted score is Sporting Cristal 1–0 Cusco, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Sporting Cristal vs Cusco?
Sporting Cristal vs Cusco (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Alberto Gallardo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
