Double chanceAlianza Lima or draw ✓92% · fair 1.09
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · @1.38
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗15% · fair 6.84
Alianza Lima vs UCV Moquegua preview and prediction
The match
UCV Moquegua travel to Estadio Alejandro Villanueva in the Primera División on Sunday 3 May (02:00 WAT) to face Alianza Lima. Alianza Lima are 6th with 29 points from 16 games (in the top half), while UCV Moquegua sit 17th on 12 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Alianza Lima's last 5: WWLWD Most recently they beat Cusco 8–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
UCV Moquegua's last 5: LWWDW Most recently they lost to Cienciano 1–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 2.1 for Alianza Lima and 0.6 for UCV Moquegua. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 46%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Alianza Lima 71%, draw 20%, UCV Moquegua 8%.
Both teams to score: no (54%) at 1.38.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Alianza Lima 2–0 UCV Moquegua. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alianza Lima71%fair 1.40 · @1.14
Draw20%fair 4.91 · @6.50
UCV Moquegua8%fair 12.22 · @26.00
2.74Expected goals
2.13Alianza Lima xG
0.61UCV Moquegua xG
46%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–015%
1–014%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
0–06%
From our goals model: Alianza Lima 2.1 – 0.6 UCV Moquegua expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alianza Lima to win✓
71%
1.40
1.14
Double chance
Alianza Lima or draw✓
92%
1.09
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
1.38
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.50
Half-time result
Alianza Lima ahead at half-time✓
52%
1.94
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alianza Lima / FT Alianza Lima✓
48%
2.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
15%
6.84
–
Form
Alianza Lima – last 6
WWLWDW
19 Apr
vs Cusco
8–0
W
14 Apr
@ ADT
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Universitario
0–1
L
22 Mar
vs Juan Pablo II College
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Deportivo Garcilaso
1–1
D
10 Mar
vs FBC Melgar
3–1
W
2.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
UCV Moquegua – last 6
LWWDWL
20 Apr
@ Cienciano
1–2
L
14 Apr
vs Juan Pablo II College
3–0
W
3 Apr
@ Sporting Cristal
2–1
W
1 Mar
@ Sport Boys
0–0
D
23 Feb
vs Deportivo Garcilaso
1–0
W
16 Feb
@ FBC Melgar
0–4
L
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alianza Lima and UCV Moquegua.
What is the prediction for Alianza Lima vs UCV Moquegua?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Alianza Lima vs UCV Moquegua?
On our numbers Alianza Lima have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 20% and UCV Moquegua 8%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Lima vs UCV Moquegua?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza Lima vs UCV Moquegua?
Our predicted score is Alianza Lima 2–0 UCV Moquegua, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Alianza Lima vs UCV Moquegua?
Alianza Lima vs UCV Moquegua (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
