Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: UCV Moquegua to win @ 3.55 – our chance 34% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultCusco to win44% · @2.12
Double chanceEither team to win78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score54% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–28% · fair 12.03
UCV Moquegua vs Cusco preview and prediction
The match
Cusco travel to Estadio 25 de Noviembre in the Primera División on Saturday 21 March (17:00 WAT) to face UCV Moquegua. UCV Moquegua are 17th with 12 points from 16 games (in the bottom three), while Cusco sit 10th on 24 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
UCV Moquegua's last 3: DWL Most recently they drew with Sport Boys 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cusco's last 4: LWWL Most recently they lost to Cienciano 1–2 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for UCV Moquegua and 1.3 for Cusco. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 54%.
Value angle: UCV Moquegua to win at 3.55 – 34% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: UCV Moquegua 1–1 Cusco. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
UCV Moquegua34%fair 2.98 · @3.55
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.15
Cusco44%fair 2.27 · @2.12
2.32Expected goals
1.05UCV Moquegua xG
1.27Cusco xG
54%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–010%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: UCV Moquegua 1.1 – 1.3 Cusco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cusco to win
44%
2.27
2.12
Double chance
Either team to win
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
54%
1.86
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
67%
1.49
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
59%
1.71
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
78%
1.27
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cusco / FT Cusco
24%
4.21
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
8%
12.03
–
Form
UCV Moquegua – last 3
DWL
1 Mar
@ Sport Boys
0–0
D
23 Feb
vs Deportivo Garcilaso
1–0
W
16 Feb
@ FBC Melgar
0–4
L
0.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Cusco – last 4
LWWL
16 Mar
vs Cienciano
1–2
L
8 Mar
vs Deportivo Garcilaso
1–0
W
23 Feb
vs Comerciantes Unidos
3–1
W
13 Feb
@ UTC Cajamarca
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between UCV Moquegua and Cusco.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win UCV Moquegua vs Cusco?
On our numbers UCV Moquegua have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Cusco 44%.
How many goals will there be in UCV Moquegua vs Cusco?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UCV Moquegua vs Cusco?
Our predicted score is UCV Moquegua 1–1 Cusco, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is UCV Moquegua vs Cusco?
UCV Moquegua vs Cusco (Primera División) kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio 25 de Noviembre.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
