Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Envigado to win @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultEnvigado to win ✓57% · @1.95
Double chanceEnvigado or draw ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗17% · fair 5.83
Leones FC vs Envigado preview and prediction
The match
Leones FC host Envigado in the Primera B on Wednesday 11 March, with kick-off at 21:30 (WAT) at Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagui. Leones FC are 16th with 14 points from 15 games (in the bottom three), while Envigado sit 1st on 7 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Leones FC's last 3: DLW Most recently they drew with Depor FC 0–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 0.7 for Leones FC and 1.5 for Envigado. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leones FC 18%, draw 25%, Envigado 57%.
Safer route: Envigado or draw (82%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Envigado to win at 1.95 – 57% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Envigado or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Leones FC 0–1 Envigado. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leones FC18%fair 5.41 · @3.75
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.10
Envigado57%fair 1.76 · @1.95
2.14Expected goals
0.68Leones FC xG
1.45Envigado xG
53%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–117%
0–212%
0–012%
1–112%
1–29%
1–08%
From our goals model: Leones FC 0.7 – 1.5 Envigado expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Envigado to win✓
57%
1.76
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Envigado or draw✓
82%
1.23
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Envigado / FT Envigado✓
33%
2.99
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
17%
5.83
–
Form
Leones FC – last 3
DLW
3 Mar
@ Depor FC
0–0
D
27 Feb
vs Ind. Yumbo
0–2
L
21 Feb
@ Real Cartagena
3–2
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Envigado – last 2
WL
5 Mar
vs Popayan
1–0
W
24 Feb
vs Quindio
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leones FC and Envigado.
Our pick is Envigado or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Leones FC vs Envigado?
On our numbers Leones FC have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Envigado 57%.
How many goals will there be in Leones FC vs Envigado?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones FC vs Envigado?
Our predicted score is Leones FC 0–1 Envigado, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Leones FC vs Envigado?
Leones FC vs Envigado (Primera B) kicks off on Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagui.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
