Value bet: Daejeon Citizen to win @ 1.75 – our chance 62% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDaejeon Citizen to win ✓62% · @1.75
Double chanceDaejeon Citizen or draw ✓87% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.73
Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen preview and prediction
The match
The K League 1 sees Gwangju FC take on Daejeon Citizen on Saturday 2 May, kicking off at 11:00 (WAT) at Gwangju Football Stadium. Gwangju FC are 12th with 23 points from 35 games, while Daejeon Citizen sit 3rd on 53 points. A gap of 30 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Gwangju FC's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to FC Anyang 2–5 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Daejeon Citizen's last 5: WLWLL Most recently they beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 4–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Daejeon Citizen arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 0.7 for Gwangju FC and 1.8 for Daejeon Citizen. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Gwangju FC 13%, draw 25%, Daejeon Citizen 62%.
Safer route: Daejeon Citizen or draw (87%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Daejeon Citizen to win at 1.75 – 62% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Gwangju FC 0–1 Daejeon Citizen. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gwangju FC13%fair 7.67 · @4.75
Draw25%fair 4.08 · @3.45
Daejeon Citizen62%fair 1.60 · @1.75
2.49Expected goals
0.70Gwangju FC xG
1.79Daejeon Citizen xG
53%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–213%
1–110%
1–29%
0–08%
0–38%
From our goals model: Gwangju FC 0.7 – 1.8 Daejeon Citizen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Daejeon Citizen to win✓
62%
1.60
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Daejeon Citizen or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.80
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
1.22
Half-time result
Daejeon Citizen ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Daejeon Citizen / FT Daejeon Citizen✓
40%
2.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.73
–
Form
Gwangju FC – last 6
LLLLLL
26 Apr
vs FC Anyang
2–5
L
22 Apr
@ Pohang Steelers
0–1
L
19 Apr
@ Ulsan Hyundai FC
1–5
L
11 Apr
vs Bucheon FC 1995
0–1
L
4 Apr
@ Gangwon FC
0–3
L
22 Mar
@ FC Seoul
0–5
L
0.5Scored / game
3.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Daejeon Citizen – last 6
WLWLLL
26 Apr
@ Ulsan Hyundai FC
4–1
W
22 Apr
vs Jeju United FC
0–1
L
18 Apr
@ FC Seoul
1–0
W
12 Apr
vs Gangwon FC
0–2
L
4 Apr
@ Pohang Steelers
0–1
L
21 Mar
vs Jeonbuk Motors
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gwangju FC and Daejeon Citizen.
What is the prediction for Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
On our numbers Gwangju FC have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Daejeon Citizen 62%.
How many goals will there be in Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our predicted score is Gwangju FC 0–1 Daejeon Citizen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Gwangju FC vs Daejeon Citizen (K League 1) kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Gwangju Football Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
