Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.85 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.85Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultUmeå FC to win ✗61% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✗85% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.18
Umeå FC vs Gefle IF preview and prediction
The match
The Ettan Norra sees Umeå FC take on Gefle IF on Saturday 9 May, kicking off at 12:00 (WAT) at Umea Energi Arena. Umeå FC are 8th with 43 points from 30 games (in the top half), while Gefle IF sit 9th on 41 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Umeå FC's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Karlberg 2–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Gefle IF's last 4: LLWW Most recently they lost to FBK Karlstad 1–2 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 2.1 for Umeå FC and 1.2 for Gefle IF. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Umeå FC 61%, draw 15%, Gefle IF 23%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.53.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Umeå FC to win – a 61% chance at odds of 1.85, above our fair price of 1.63, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Umeå FC 2–1 Gefle IF. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Umeå FC61%fair 1.63 · @1.85
Draw15%fair 6.60 · @3.60
Gefle IF23%fair 4.26 · @3.50
3.25Expected goals
2.08Umeå FC xG
1.16Gefle IF xG
62%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–19%
2–08%
1–08%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Umeå FC 2.1 – 1.2 Gefle IF expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Umeå FC to win✗
61%
1.63
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
85%
1.18
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.62
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
1.48
Half-time result
Umeå FC ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Umeå FC / FT Umeå FC✗
37%
2.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.18
–
Form
Umeå FC – last 5
WLLLW
3 May
vs Karlberg
2–1
W
26 Apr
@ Stockholm Internazionale
0–3
L
19 Apr
@ Vasalund
1–3
L
12 Apr
vs Arlanda
0–1
L
6 Apr
@ Hammarby Talang
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
60%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Gefle IF – last 4
LLWW
3 Apr
@ FBK Karlstad
1–2
L
21 Mar
@ IK brage
0–1
L
7 Mar
vs Sunnersta
3–2
W
21 Feb
vs Lucksta
7–1
W
2.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Umeå FC and Gefle IF.
Our pick is Umeå FC to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Umeå FC vs Gefle IF?
On our numbers Umeå FC have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Gefle IF 23%.
How many goals will there be in Umeå FC vs Gefle IF?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Umeå FC vs Gefle IF?
Our predicted score is Umeå FC 2–1 Gefle IF, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Umeå FC vs Gefle IF?
Umeå FC vs Gefle IF (Ettan Norra) kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Umea Energi Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
