Value bet: Cerezo Osaka to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNagoya Grampus to win ✓40% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.37
Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka preview and prediction
The match
Cerezo Osaka travel to Toyota Stadium in the J1 League on Saturday 4 April (07:00 WAT) to face Nagoya Grampus. Nagoya Grampus are 3rd with 31 points from 18 games (in the top four), while Cerezo Osaka sit 2nd on 31 points (in the top four). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Nagoya Grampus's last 4: WLWL Most recently they beat Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Cerezo Osaka's last 5: LWLLW Most recently they lost to Fagiano Okayama 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Nagoya Grampus and 1.3 for Cerezo Osaka. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nagoya Grampus 40%, draw 23%, Cerezo Osaka 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Cerezo Osaka to win at 3.10 – 37% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Cerezo Osaka. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nagoya Grampus40%fair 2.50 · @2.20
Draw23%fair 4.37 · @3.45
Cerezo Osaka37%fair 2.69 · @3.10
2.64Expected goals
1.35Nagoya Grampus xG
1.29Cerezo Osaka xG
59%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Nagoya Grampus 1.3 – 1.3 Cerezo Osaka expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nagoya Grampus to win✓
40%
2.50
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.71
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.35
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nagoya Grampus / FT Nagoya Grampus✗
22%
4.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
10.37
–
Form
Nagoya Grampus – last 4
WLWL
18 Mar
vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2–1
W
14 Mar
vs Vissel Kobe
0–3
L
7 Mar
@ Avispa Fukuoka
5–1
W
21 Feb
vs V-varen Nagasaki
1–3
L
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Cerezo Osaka – last 5
LWLLW
18 Mar
vs Fagiano Okayama
1–2
L
14 Mar
@ Kyoto Sanga
2–1
W
28 Feb
@ V-varen Nagasaki
0–1
L
22 Feb
vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1–2
L
15 Feb
@ Avispa Fukuoka
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nagoya Grampus and Cerezo Osaka.
What is the prediction for Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?
On our numbers Nagoya Grampus have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Cerezo Osaka 37%.
How many goals will there be in Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?
Our predicted score is Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Cerezo Osaka, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?
Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka (J1 League) kicks off on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 07:00 (West Africa Time) at Toyota Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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