Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
2
Value bet: EC Lemense to win @ 2.15 – our chance 53% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultEC Lemense to win ✓53% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.60
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓67% · @1.45
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓18% · fair 5.56
Nacional SP vs EC Lemense preview and prediction
The match
The Paulista A4 sees Nacional SP take on EC Lemense on Wednesday 25 February, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 0.7 for Nacional SP and 1.2 for EC Lemense. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 67% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nacional SP 25%, draw 22%, EC Lemense 53%.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.60.
Value angle: EC Lemense to win at 2.15 – 53% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Nacional SP 0–1 EC Lemense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nacional SP25%fair 3.99 · @3.20
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.10
EC Lemense53%fair 1.90 · @2.15
1.91Expected goals
0.69Nacional SP xG
1.22EC Lemense xG
48%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–118%
0–015%
1–112%
0–211%
1–010%
1–28%
From our goals model: Nacional SP 0.7 – 1.2 EC Lemense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
EC Lemense to win✓
53%
1.90
2.15 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
60%
1.68
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT EC Lemense / FT EC Lemense✗
28%
3.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
18%
5.56
–
Form
Nacional SP
No recent results on record.
EC Lemense
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nacional SP and EC Lemense.
What is the prediction for Nacional SP vs EC Lemense?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Nacional SP vs EC Lemense?
On our numbers Nacional SP have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 22% and EC Lemense 53%.
How many goals will there be in Nacional SP vs EC Lemense?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nacional SP vs EC Lemense?
Our predicted score is Nacional SP 0–1 EC Lemense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Nacional SP vs EC Lemense?
Nacional SP vs EC Lemense (Paulista A4) kicks off on Wednesday 25 February 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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