USA vs Germany prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.44 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: USA 1.3 – 2.7 Germany expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Germany travel as clear favourites – 66% to win, against 13% for USA.
USA have taken 3 points from their last 2 matches (1W 0D 1L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.0 per game. Germany have 9 points from their last 3 (3W 0D 0L), averaging 3.3 scored and 1.3 conceded. Germany come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 4.0 goals (1.3 for USA, 2.7 for Germany). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–2 (9%), 1–3 (8%), 0–2 (7%).
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 69% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.50 is better than our fair price of 1.44, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Germany to win ✓ | 66% | 1.52 | 1.58 |
| Double chance | Germany or draw ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 66% | 1.52 | 1.55 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | 1.15 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.44 | 1.50 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 51% | 1.95 | 1.62 |
| Half-time result | Germany ahead at half-time ✗ | 52% | 1.93 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Germany / FT Germany ✗ | 46% | 2.17 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✓ | 9% | 11.42 | – |
Form
USA – last 2
| 31 May | vs Senegal | 3–2 | W |
| 1 Apr | vs Portugal | 0–2 | L |
Germany – last 3
| 31 May | vs Finland | 4–0 | W |
| 30 Mar | vs Ghana | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Mar | @ Switzerland | 4–3 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between USA and Germany.
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Tunisia0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for USA vs Germany?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win USA vs Germany?
On our numbers USA have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Germany 66%.
How many goals will there be in USA vs Germany?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
When is USA vs Germany?
USA vs Germany (Friendlies) kicks off on Saturday 6 June 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Soldier Field.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.