Germany vs Finland prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.30 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.91 – our chance 58% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Germany 3.2 – 1.1 Finland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Germany are clear favourites at home with a 77% chance of winning, against 8% for Finland.
Germany have taken 6 points from their last 2 matches (2W 0D 0L), scoring 3.0 and conceding 2.0 per game. Finland have 3 points from their last 1 (1W 0D 0L), averaging 2.0 scored and 0.0 conceded.
We expect around 4.4 goals (3.2 for Germany, 1.1 for Finland). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 77% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 3–1 (8%), 2–1 (7%), 3–0 (7%).
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 77% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.30 is close to our fair price of 1.30. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 1.91 is our value angle (58% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Germany to win ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.15 |
| Double chance | Germany or draw ✓ | 92% | 1.09 | 1.03 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 58% | 1.73 | 1.91 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 90% | 1.11 | 1.08 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Over 3.5 goals ✓ | 58% | 1.72 | 1.80 |
| Half-time result | Germany ahead at half-time ✓ | 60% | 1.66 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Germany / FT Germany ✓ | 56% | 1.79 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 3–1 ✗ | 8% | 12.34 | – |
Form
Germany – last 2
| 30 Mar | vs Ghana | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Mar | @ Switzerland | 4–3 | W |
Finland – last 1
| 27 Mar | @ New Zealand | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Germany and Finland.
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Serbia0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Germany vs Finland?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Germany vs Finland?
On our numbers Germany have a 77% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Finland 8%.
How many goals will there be in Germany vs Finland?
We expect about 4.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 77% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
When is Germany vs Finland?
Germany vs Finland (Friendlies) kicks off on Sunday 31 May 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at MEWA Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.