Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 52% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Nacional to win ✗60% · @1.55
Double chanceAtletico Nacional or draw ✗84% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.25
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.36
Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios preview and prediction
The match
The CONMEBOL Sudamericana sees Atletico Nacional take on Millonarios on Thursday 5 March, kicking off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Form guide
Atletico Nacional's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to Deportes Tolima 0–1 away. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.7 for Atletico Nacional and 0.9 for Millonarios. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 52%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atletico Nacional 60%, draw 23%, Millonarios 16%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.25.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.25 – 52% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Atletico Nacional 1–0 Millonarios. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico Nacional60%fair 1.66 · @1.55
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.70
Millonarios16%fair 6.07 · @6.50
2.60Expected goals
1.69Atletico Nacional xG
0.91Millonarios xG
52%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Atletico Nacional 1.7 – 0.9 Millonarios expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Nacional to win✗
60%
1.66
1.55
Double chance
Atletico Nacional or draw✗
84%
1.20
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
2.25 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Nacional / FT Atletico Nacional✗
34%
2.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.36
–
Form
Atletico Nacional – last 5
LWWLW
2 Mar
@ Deportes Tolima
0–1
L
26 Feb
@ Santa Fe
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Alianza Valledupar
3–0
W
16 Feb
@ Deportivo Cali
0–1
L
13 Feb
vs Fortaleza FC
4–1
W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Millonarios – last 2
WL
27 Feb
vs Deportivo Pereira
5–1
W
22 Feb
@ Internacional de Bogota
2–3
L
3.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Nacional and Millonarios.
What is the prediction for Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios?
On our numbers Atletico Nacional have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Millonarios 16%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios?
Our predicted score is Atletico Nacional 1–0 Millonarios, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios?
Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Thursday 5 March 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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