Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.40Odds
2
Value bet: Estrella Del Sur to win @ 3.60 – our chance 30% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLugano to win ✗46% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · @1.12
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.39
Lugano vs Estrella Del Sur preview and prediction
The match
The Primera C sees Lugano take on Estrella Del Sur on Sunday 20 September, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT). Lugano are 7th with 46 points from 32 games (in the top half), while Estrella Del Sur sit 3rd on 48 points (in the top four). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Lugano's last 5: DWDWL Most recently they drew with Leones de Rosario 0–0 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Estrella Del Sur's last 5: DLDLW Most recently they drew with Yupanqui 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.2 for Lugano and 0.8 for Estrella Del Sur. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 67% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lugano 46%, draw 24%, Estrella Del Sur 30%.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.50.
Value angle: Estrella Del Sur to win at 3.60 – 30% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Lugano 1–0 Estrella Del Sur. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lugano46%fair 2.16 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @2.80
Estrella Del Sur30%fair 3.35 · @3.60
2.00Expected goals
1.16Lugano xG
0.84Estrella Del Sur xG
47%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
0–014%
1–113%
0–111%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Lugano 1.2 – 0.8 Estrella Del Sur expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lugano to win✗
46%
2.16
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.71
1.62
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.18
1.12
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lugano / FT Lugano✗
24%
4.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.39
–
Form
Lugano – last 6
DWDWLD
12 Sep
vs Leones de Rosario
0–0
D
6 Sep
@ Puerto Nuevo
1–0
W
31 Aug
vs Berazategui
1–1
D
22 Aug
@ Leandro N. Alem
1–0
W
16 Aug
vs Lujan
1–2
L
9 Aug
vs Victoriano Arenas
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Estrella Del Sur – last 6
DLDLWW
12 Sep
vs Yupanqui
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Berazategui
0–2
L
30 Aug
vs Victoriano Arenas
1–1
D
24 Aug
@ Centro Español
0–2
L
15 Aug
@ Canuelas
2–1
W
8 Aug
vs JJ Urquiza
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lugano and Estrella Del Sur.
What is the prediction for Lugano vs Estrella Del Sur?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Lugano vs Estrella Del Sur?
On our numbers Lugano have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Estrella Del Sur 30%.
How many goals will there be in Lugano vs Estrella Del Sur?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lugano vs Estrella Del Sur?
Our predicted score is Lugano 1–0 Estrella Del Sur, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Lugano vs Estrella Del Sur?
Lugano vs Estrella Del Sur (Primera C) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
