Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.38 – our chance 50% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMercedes to win ✓47% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @2.38
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓14% · fair 7.00
Leandro N. Alem vs Mercedes preview and prediction
The match
Mercedes travel to face Leandro N. Alem in the Primera C on Sunday 20 September (19:00 WAT). Leandro N. Alem are 13th with 31 points from 32 games (in the bottom three), while Mercedes sit 5th on 47 points (in the top half). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Leandro N. Alem's last 5: DLLLL Most recently they drew with Deportivo Muñiz 0–0 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Mercedes's last 5: DLLWL Most recently they drew with Deportivo Español 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Mercedes arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 0.7 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 0.9 for Leandro N. Alem and 1.3 for Mercedes. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leandro N. Alem 29%, draw 23%, Mercedes 47%.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 2.38.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.38 – 50% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Leandro N. Alem 0–1 Mercedes. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leandro N. Alem29%fair 3.39 · @3.30
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @2.90
Mercedes47%fair 2.12 · @2.10
2.18Expected goals
0.92Leandro N. Alem xG
1.27Mercedes xG
50%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–011%
1–010%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Leandro N. Alem 0.9 – 1.3 Mercedes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mercedes to win✓
47%
2.12
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
2.00
2.38 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
62%
1.63
1.57
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.14
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mercedes / FT Mercedes✗
26%
3.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
14%
7.00
–
Form
Leandro N. Alem – last 6
DLLLLL
12 Sep
@ Deportivo Muñiz
0–0
D
6 Sep
@ Deportivo Paraguayo
1–4
L
30 Aug
vs Puerto Nuevo
0–3
L
25 Aug
vs Juventud Unida
1–2
L
22 Aug
vs Lugano
0–1
L
15 Aug
@ Central Ballester
0–3
L
0.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Mercedes – last 6
DLLWLL
10 Sep
vs Deportivo Español
1–1
D
4 Sep
vs Defensores de Cambaceres
0–3
L
30 Aug
@ Juventud Unida
1–4
L
22 Aug
vs Sacachispas
2–0
W
18 Aug
@ Claypole
0–1
L
8 Aug
@ Argentino Rosario
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leandro N. Alem and Mercedes.
What is the prediction for Leandro N. Alem vs Mercedes?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Leandro N. Alem vs Mercedes?
On our numbers Leandro N. Alem have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Mercedes 47%.
How many goals will there be in Leandro N. Alem vs Mercedes?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leandro N. Alem vs Mercedes?
Our predicted score is Leandro N. Alem 0–1 Mercedes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Leandro N. Alem vs Mercedes?
Leandro N. Alem vs Mercedes (Primera C) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
