Primera B Metropolitana · Argentina · Ciudad de Laferrere StadiumDeportivo Laferrere vs Sportivo Italiano prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 51% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Deportivo Laferrere 1.1 – 1.1 Sportivo Italiano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Deportivo Laferrere and Sportivo Italiano on our numbers – 37% for the home side, 38% for the visitors and 26% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Deportivo Laferrere have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (1W 3D 2L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.3 per game. Sportivo Italiano have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 0.8 scored and 0.8 conceded.
We expect around 2.2 goals (1.1 for Deportivo Laferrere, 1.1 for Sportivo Italiano). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (13%), 1–0 (12%).
In their last 1 meeting, Deportivo Laferrere have won 0, Sportivo Italiano have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 64% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.44 is close to our fair price of 1.56. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.20 is our value angle (51% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Sportivo Italiano to win ✓ | 38% | 2.67 | 2.60 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 74% | 1.34 | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 51% | 1.96 | 2.20 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | 1.50 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 64% | 1.56 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 82% | 1.22 | 1.14 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 48% | 2.08 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw ✗ | 20% | 4.98 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 13% | 7.95 | – |
Form
Deportivo Laferrere – last 6
| 19 Sep | @ San Martín Burzaco | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Villa San Carlos | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | @ Liniers | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | vs Real Pilar | 1–1 | D |
| 25 Aug | @ UAI Urquiza | 2–0 | W |
| 21 Aug | vs Villa Dalmine | 0–2 | L |
Sportivo Italiano – last 6
| 19 Sep | vs Brown DE Adrogue | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sep | @ Deportivo Armenio | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Flandria | 3–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | @ Argentino Quilmes | 2–0 | W |
| 25 Aug | vs Defensores Unidos | 0–2 | L |
| 21 Aug | @ Comunicaciones | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 18 May 2026 | Sportivo Italiano v Deportivo Laferrere | 1–1 |
Primera B Metropolitana table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Excursionistas | 42 | +36 | 81 |
| 2 |  Arsenal Sarandi | 42 | +28 | 77 |
| 3 |  Sportivo Italiano | 42 | +15 | 72 |
| 4 |  Talleres Remedios | 42 | +19 | 71 |
| 5 |  Deportivo Camioneros | 42 | +15 | 70 |
| 6 |  Villa Dalmine | 42 | +12 | 68 |
| 7 |  Real Pilar | 42 | +4 | 66 |
| 8 |  Deportivo Armenio | 42 | +3 | 63 |
| 9 |  Comunicaciones | 42 | +5 | 60 |
| 10 |  Deportivo Laferrere | 42 | -2 | 59 |
| 11 |  Villa San Carlos | 42 | -5 | 51 |
| 12 |  San Martín Burzaco | 42 | -6 | 51 |
| 13 |  Argentino de Merlo | 42 | -6 | 50 |
| 14 |  Flandria | 42 | -10 | 49 |
| 15 |  Deportivo Merlo | 42 | -15 | 49 |
| 16 |  Liniers | 42 | -7 | 48 |
| 17 |  Argentino Quilmes | 42 | -8 | 47 |
| 18 |  Dock Sud | 42 | -9 | 47 |
| 19 |  Defensores Unidos | 42 | -6 | 46 |
| 20 |  Brown DE Adrogue | 42 | -12 | 46 |
| 21 |  UAI Urquiza | 42 | -10 | 45 |
| 22 |  Ituzaingó | 42 | -41 | 17 |
More Primera B Metropolitana predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Deportivo Laferrere vs Sportivo Italiano?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Deportivo Laferrere vs Sportivo Italiano?
On our numbers Deportivo Laferrere have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Sportivo Italiano 38%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Laferrere vs Sportivo Italiano?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is Deportivo Laferrere vs Sportivo Italiano?
Deportivo Laferrere vs Sportivo Italiano (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Ciudad de Laferrere Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.