Primera B Metropolitana · Argentina · Armenia StadiumDeportivo Armenio vs Deportivo Merlo prediction & analysis
Deportivo Armenio to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.73 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Deportivo Armenio 1.6 – 0.5 Deportivo Merlo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Deportivo Armenio are clear favourites at home with a 64% chance of winning, against 12% for Deportivo Merlo.
Deportivo Armenio have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.8 per game. Deportivo Merlo have 5 points from their last 6 (1W 2D 3L), averaging 0.5 scored and 0.8 conceded. Deportivo Armenio come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.2 goals (1.6 for Deportivo Armenio, 0.5 for Deportivo Merlo). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 1–0 (18%), 2–0 (15%), 0–0 (11%).
Our pick is Deportivo Armenio to win at a 64% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.73 is better than our fair price of 1.56, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Deportivo Armenio to win ✓ | 64% | 1.56 | 1.73 ▲ |
| Double chance | Deportivo Armenio or draw ✓ | 88% | 1.13 | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 57% | 1.77 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 62% | 1.60 | 1.53 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 64% | 1.57 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 82% | 1.22 | 1.14 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 45% | 2.21 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Deportivo Armenio / FT Deportivo Armenio ✓ | 40% | 2.51 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✓ | 18% | 5.41 | – |
Form
Deportivo Armenio – last 6
| 19 Sep | @ Deportivo Camioneros | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Sportivo Italiano | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ San Martín Burzaco | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | vs Villa San Carlos | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Aug | @ Liniers | 1–3 | L |
| 22 Aug | vs Real Pilar | 0–1 | L |
Deportivo Merlo – last 6
| 20 Sep | vs Flandria | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | @ Argentino Quilmes | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Defensores Unidos | 0–0 | D |
| 31 Aug | @ Comunicaciones | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Aug | vs Dock Sud | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | @ Ituzaingó | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportivo Armenio and Deportivo Merlo.
Primera B Metropolitana table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Excursionistas | 42 | +36 | 81 |
| 2 |  Arsenal Sarandi | 42 | +28 | 77 |
| 3 |  Sportivo Italiano | 42 | +15 | 72 |
| 4 |  Talleres Remedios | 42 | +19 | 71 |
| 5 |  Deportivo Camioneros | 42 | +15 | 70 |
| 6 |  Villa Dalmine | 42 | +12 | 68 |
| 7 |  Real Pilar | 42 | +4 | 66 |
| 8 |  Deportivo Armenio | 42 | +3 | 63 |
| 9 |  Comunicaciones | 42 | +5 | 60 |
| 10 |  Deportivo Laferrere | 42 | -2 | 59 |
| 11 |  Villa San Carlos | 42 | -5 | 51 |
| 12 |  San Martín Burzaco | 42 | -6 | 51 |
| 13 |  Argentino de Merlo | 42 | -6 | 50 |
| 14 |  Flandria | 42 | -10 | 49 |
| 15 |  Deportivo Merlo | 42 | -15 | 49 |
| 16 |  Liniers | 42 | -7 | 48 |
| 17 |  Argentino Quilmes | 42 | -8 | 47 |
| 18 |  Dock Sud | 42 | -9 | 47 |
| 19 |  Defensores Unidos | 42 | -6 | 46 |
| 20 |  Brown DE Adrogue | 42 | -12 | 46 |
| 21 |  UAI Urquiza | 42 | -10 | 45 |
| 22 |  Ituzaingó | 42 | -41 | 17 |
More Primera B Metropolitana predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Deportivo Armenio vs Deportivo Merlo?
Our pick is Deportivo Armenio to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Deportivo Armenio vs Deportivo Merlo?
On our numbers Deportivo Armenio have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Deportivo Merlo 12%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Armenio vs Deportivo Merlo?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
When is Deportivo Armenio vs Deportivo Merlo?
Deportivo Armenio vs Deportivo Merlo (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Armenia Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.