Value bet: Defensores Unidos to win @ 3.40 – our chance 35% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportivo Merlo to win ✗38% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗73% · @1.40
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.03
Deportivo Merlo vs Defensores Unidos preview and prediction
The match
Deportivo Merlo host Defensores Unidos in the Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday 5 September, with kick-off at 23:00 (WAT) at Jose Manuel Moreno Stadium. Deportivo Merlo are 15th with 49 points from 42 games (in the bottom half), while Defensores Unidos sit 19th on 46 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Deportivo Merlo's last 5: LLDDL Most recently they lost to Comunicaciones 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Defensores Unidos's last 5: DWWLL Most recently they drew with Deportivo Camioneros 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Defensores Unidos arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.1 for Deportivo Merlo and 1.1 for Defensores Unidos. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 38%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Deportivo Merlo 38%, draw 27%, Defensores Unidos 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.10.
Value angle: Defensores Unidos to win at 3.40 – 35% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 2.10, above our fair price of 1.96, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Deportivo Merlo 1–1 Defensores Unidos. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Deportivo Merlo38%fair 2.63 · @2.20
Draw27%fair 3.73 · @2.75
Defensores Unidos35%fair 2.85 · @3.40
2.21Expected goals
1.13Deportivo Merlo xG
1.08Defensores Unidos xG
51%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–112%
0–011%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Deportivo Merlo 1.1 – 1.1 Defensores Unidos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Merlo to win✗
38%
2.63
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.37
1.40
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportivo Merlo / FT Deportivo Merlo✗
21%
4.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.03
–
Form
Deportivo Merlo – last 6
LLDDLD
31 Aug
@ Comunicaciones
0–1
L
26 Aug
vs Dock Sud
1–2
L
22 Aug
@ Ituzaingó
0–0
D
15 Aug
@ Deportivo Camioneros
0–0
D
9 Aug
vs Sportivo Italiano
0–4
L
2 Aug
@ San Martín Burzaco
1–1
D
0.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Defensores Unidos – last 6
DWWLLL
29 Aug
vs Deportivo Camioneros
0–0
D
25 Aug
@ Sportivo Italiano
2–0
W
22 Aug
vs San Martín Burzaco
2–0
W
16 Aug
@ Villa San Carlos
0–1
L
8 Aug
vs Liniers
2–3
L
1 Aug
@ Real Pilar
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportivo Merlo and Defensores Unidos.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Merlo vs Defensores Unidos?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.10.
Who will win Deportivo Merlo vs Defensores Unidos?
On our numbers Deportivo Merlo have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Defensores Unidos 35%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Merlo vs Defensores Unidos?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Merlo vs Defensores Unidos?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Merlo 1–1 Defensores Unidos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Merlo vs Defensores Unidos?
Deportivo Merlo vs Defensores Unidos (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Jose Manuel Moreno Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
