Value bet: Guastatoya to win @ 3.40 – our chance 34% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAurora to win ✗44% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.92
Aurora vs Guastatoya preview and prediction
The match
Guastatoya travel to Estadio Guillermo Slowing in the Liga Nacional on Thursday 19 March (22:00 WAT) to face Aurora. Aurora are 11th with 20 points from 22 games (in the bottom three), while Guastatoya sit 7th on 31 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Aurora's last 5: LLDDD Most recently they lost to Municipal 1–4 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Guastatoya's last 5: WDLWL Most recently they beat Mictlán 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.4 for Aurora and 1.1 for Guastatoya. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 53%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Guastatoya to win at 3.40 – 34% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Aurora 1–1 Guastatoya. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Aurora44%fair 2.26 · @2.05
Draw22%fair 4.54 · @3.20
Guastatoya34%fair 2.96 · @3.40
2.49Expected goals
1.36Aurora xG
1.14Guastatoya xG
53%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%
From our goals model: Aurora 1.4 – 1.1 Guastatoya expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aurora to win✗
44%
2.26
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.87
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.44
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.80
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aurora / FT Aurora✗
24%
4.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.92
–
Form
Aurora – last 6
LLDDDW
16 Mar
@ Municipal
1–4
L
11 Mar
@ Mictlán
0–2
L
8 Mar
vs Xelajú
0–0
D
1 Mar
vs Mixco
1–1
D
26 Feb
@ Marquense
0–0
D
22 Feb
vs Comunicaciones
2–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Guastatoya – last 6
WDLWLD
15 Mar
vs Mictlán
3–1
W
5 Mar
@ Marquense
2–2
D
25 Feb
@ Antigua GFC
0–2
L
22 Feb
vs Cobán Imperial
2–0
W
17 Feb
@ Achuapa
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Malacateco
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aurora and Guastatoya.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Aurora vs Guastatoya?
On our numbers Aurora have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Guastatoya 34%.
How many goals will there be in Aurora vs Guastatoya?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aurora vs Guastatoya?
Our predicted score is Aurora 1–1 Guastatoya, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Aurora vs Guastatoya?
Aurora vs Guastatoya (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Thursday 19 March 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Guillermo Slowing.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
