Liga Nacional · Guatemala · Estadio La AsuncionMictlán vs Malacateco prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
Value bet: Mictlán to win @ 1.80 – our chance 64% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Mictlán 1.8 – 0.7 Malacateco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Mictlán are clear favourites at home with a 64% chance of winning, against 15% for Malacateco.
Mictlán have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.7 per game. Malacateco have 2 points from their last 6 (0W 2D 4L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded. Mictlán come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.8 for Mictlán, 0.7 for Malacateco). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 52%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (10%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.28 is close to our fair price of 1.33. For a bigger price, Mictlán to win at 1.80 is our value angle (64% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Mictlán to win ✓ | 64% | 1.55 | 1.80 ▲ |
| Double chance | Mictlán or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 52% | 1.92 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 71% | 1.42 | 1.30 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 54% | 1.85 | 1.77 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.33 | 1.28 |
| Half-time result | Mictlán ahead at half-time ✓ | 44% | 2.28 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Mictlán / FT Mictlán ✓ | 39% | 2.53 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✓ | 15% | 6.53 | – |
Form
Mictlán – last 6
| 15 Mar | @ Guastatoya | 1–3 | L |
| 11 Mar | vs Aurora | 2–0 | W |
| 2 Mar | @ Xelajú | 0–2 | L |
| 26 Feb | @ Mixco | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Feb | vs Marquense | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Feb | @ Comunicaciones | 1–2 | L |
Malacateco – last 6
| 15 Mar | vs Mixco | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | @ Marquense | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Mar | @ Comunicaciones | 2–3 | L |
| 1 Mar | vs Antigua GFC | 2–2 | D |
| 24 Feb | @ Cobán Imperial | 0–2 | L |
| 21 Feb | vs Achuapa | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mictlán and Malacateco.
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Xelajú | 22 | +15 | 39 |
| 2 |  Municipal | 22 | +11 | 38 |
| 3 |  Mixco | 22 | +4 | 36 |
| 4 |  Comunicaciones | 22 | +2 | 35 |
| 5 |  Antigua GFC | 22 | +5 | 34 |
| 6 |  Cobán Imperial | 22 | +7 | 32 |
| 7 |  Guastatoya | 22 | +8 | 31 |
| 8 |  Marquense | 22 | -4 | 30 |
| 9 |  Mictlán | 22 | -11 | 27 |
| 10 |  Malacateco | 22 | -6 | 22 |
| 11 |  Aurora | 22 | -16 | 20 |
| 12 |  Achuapa | 22 | -15 | 19 |
More Liga Nacional predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Mictlán vs Malacateco?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Mictlán vs Malacateco?
On our numbers Mictlán have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Malacateco 15%.
How many goals will there be in Mictlán vs Malacateco?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Mictlán vs Malacateco?
Mictlán vs Malacateco (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Thursday 19 March 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio La Asuncion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.