Value bet: Municipal to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultMunicipal to win56% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win79% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score52% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–115% · fair 6.46
Mictlán vs Municipal preview and prediction
The match
Municipal travel to Estadio La Asuncion in the Liga Nacional on Sunday 8 March (22:00 WAT) to face Mictlán. Mictlán are 9th with 27 points from 22 games (in the bottom half), while Municipal sit 2nd on 38 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Mictlán's last 5: LDWLD Most recently they lost to Xelajú 0–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded.
Municipal's last 5: LWLWD Most recently they lost to Mixco 0–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 0.8 for Mictlán and 1.4 for Municipal. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mictlán 23%, draw 21%, Municipal 56%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Municipal to win at 1.95 – 56% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Mictlán 1–1 Municipal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mictlán23%fair 4.28 · @3.80
Draw21%fair 4.74 · @3.10
Municipal56%fair 1.80 · @1.95
2.23Expected goals
0.79Mictlán xG
1.44Municipal xG
52%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
1–112%
0–211%
0–011%
1–29%
1–08%
From our goals model: Mictlán 0.8 – 1.4 Municipal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Municipal to win
56%
1.80
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
79%
1.27
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
52%
1.91
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
65%
1.54
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
61%
1.64
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
80%
1.25
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Municipal / FT Municipal
31%
3.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
15%
6.46
–
Form
Mictlán – last 5
LDWLD
2 Mar
@ Xelajú
0–2
L
26 Feb
@ Mixco
2–2
D
22 Feb
vs Marquense
2–1
W
20 Feb
@ Comunicaciones
1–2
L
15 Feb
vs Antigua GFC
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Municipal – last 6
LWLWDD
4 Mar
@ Mixco
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs Marquense
1–0
W
26 Feb
@ Comunicaciones
0–1
L
22 Feb
vs Antigua GFC
4–2
W
18 Feb
@ Cobán Imperial
0–0
D
15 Feb
vs Achuapa
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mictlán and Municipal.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Mictlán vs Municipal?
On our numbers Mictlán have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Municipal 56%.
How many goals will there be in Mictlán vs Municipal?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mictlán vs Municipal?
Our predicted score is Mictlán 1–1 Municipal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Mictlán vs Municipal?
Mictlán vs Municipal (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio La Asuncion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
