Value bet: Xelajú to win @ 3.20 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAurora to win ✗42% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.92
Aurora vs Xelajú preview and prediction
The match
Xelajú travel to Estadio Guillermo Slowing in the Liga Nacional on Sunday 8 March (18:00 WAT) to face Aurora. Aurora are 11th with 20 points from 22 games (in the bottom three), while Xelajú sit 1st on 39 points (top of the table). A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Aurora's last 5: DDWLW Most recently they drew with Mixco 1–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Xelajú's last 5: DWDWL Most recently they drew with Cobán Imperial 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Aurora and 1.1 for Xelajú. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 58%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Aurora 42%, draw 24%, Xelajú 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Xelajú to win at 3.20 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Aurora 1–1 Xelajú. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Aurora42%fair 2.40 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.10
Xelajú34%fair 2.94 · @3.20
2.46Expected goals
1.31Aurora xG
1.15Xelajú xG
58%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Aurora 1.3 – 1.1 Xelajú expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aurora to win✗
42%
2.40
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.85 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.46
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aurora / FT Aurora✗
23%
4.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.92
–
Form
Aurora – last 5
DDWLW
1 Mar
vs Mixco
1–1
D
26 Feb
@ Marquense
0–0
D
22 Feb
vs Comunicaciones
2–0
W
19 Feb
@ Antigua GFC
0–2
L
15 Feb
vs Cobán Imperial
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Xelajú – last 6
DWDWLW
5 Mar
@ Cobán Imperial
1–1
D
2 Mar
vs Mictlán
2–0
W
25 Feb
@ Achuapa
0–0
D
23 Feb
vs Mixco
2–1
W
19 Feb
@ Malacateco
0–1
L
16 Feb
vs Marquense
4–2
W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aurora and Xelajú.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Aurora vs Xelajú?
On our numbers Aurora have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Xelajú 34%.
How many goals will there be in Aurora vs Xelajú?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aurora vs Xelajú?
Our predicted score is Aurora 1–1 Xelajú, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Aurora vs Xelajú?
Aurora vs Xelajú (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Guillermo Slowing.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
