Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultMarquense to win ✗42% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗73% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.05
Marquense vs Guastatoya preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Nacional sees Marquense take on Guastatoya on Thursday 5 March, kicking off at 01:00 (WAT) at Estadio Marquesa de la Ensenada. Marquense are 8th with 30 points from 22 games (in the bottom half), while Guastatoya sit 7th on 31 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Marquense's last 5: LDLWL Most recently they lost to Municipal 0–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.6 conceded.
Guastatoya's last 4: LWLD Most recently they lost to Antigua GFC 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.3 for Marquense and 1.0 for Guastatoya. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 55%.
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Marquense 1–1 Guastatoya. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Marquense42%fair 2.38 · @2.10
Draw27%fair 3.76 · @3.10
Guastatoya31%fair 3.18 · @3.35
2.26Expected goals
1.26Marquense xG
1.00Guastatoya xG
55%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–110%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Marquense 1.3 – 1.0 Guastatoya expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Marquense
Guastatoya
Attack vs Liga Nacional average
-23%
+3%
Goals conceded vs average
-6%
-10%
Our expected goals here
1.16
0.88
Our own ratings from every Liga Nacional result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marquense to win✗
42%
2.38
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.36
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.69
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.26
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marquense / FT Marquense✗
24%
4.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.05
–
Form
Marquense – last 5
LDLWL
1 Mar
@ Municipal
0–1
L
26 Feb
vs Aurora
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ Mictlán
1–2
L
20 Feb
vs Mixco
2–1
W
16 Feb
@ Xelajú
2–4
L
1.0Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Guastatoya – last 4
LWLD
25 Feb
@ Antigua GFC
0–2
L
22 Feb
vs Cobán Imperial
2–0
W
17 Feb
@ Achuapa
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Malacateco
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
25%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marquense and Guastatoya.
What is the prediction for Marquense vs Guastatoya?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Marquense vs Guastatoya?
On our numbers Marquense have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Guastatoya 31%.
How many goals will there be in Marquense vs Guastatoya?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Marquense vs Guastatoya?
Our predicted score is Marquense 1–1 Guastatoya, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Marquense vs Guastatoya?
Marquense vs Guastatoya (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Thursday 5 March 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Marquesa de la Ensenada.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
