Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 53% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAntigua GFC to win ✓69% · @1.40
Double chanceAntigua GFC or draw ✓89% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.05
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.24
Antigua GFC vs Achuapa preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Nacional sees Antigua GFC take on Achuapa on Thursday 5 March, kicking off at 03:00 (WAT) at Estadio Pensativo. Antigua GFC are 5th with 34 points from 22 games (in the top half), while Achuapa sit 12th on 19 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Antigua GFC's last 5: DWLWD Most recently they drew with Malacateco 2–2 away. They average 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Achuapa's last 4: DDWD Most recently they drew with Xelajú 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 2.1 for Antigua GFC and 0.6 for Achuapa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 53%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.05 – 53% on our numbers against 49% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Antigua GFC to win – a 69% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Antigua GFC 2–0 Achuapa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Antigua GFC69%fair 1.44 · @1.40
Draw20%fair 5.09 · @4.10
Achuapa11%fair 9.18 · @7.50
2.65Expected goals
2.05Antigua GFC xG
0.60Achuapa xG
53%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–015%
1–014%
3–010%
2–19%
1–19%
0–07%
From our goals model: Antigua GFC 2.1 – 0.6 Achuapa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Antigua GFC
Achuapa
Attack vs Liga Nacional average
+28%
-28%
Goals conceded vs average
-11%
+3%
Our expected goals here
2.21
0.58
Our own ratings from every Liga Nacional result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Antigua GFC to win✓
69%
1.44
1.40
Double chance
Antigua GFC or draw✓
89%
1.12
1.03
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.36
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.30
Half-time result
Antigua GFC ahead at half-time✗
51%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Antigua GFC / FT Antigua GFC✗
47%
2.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.24
–
Form
Antigua GFC – last 5
DWLWD
1 Mar
@ Malacateco
2–2
D
25 Feb
vs Guastatoya
2–0
W
22 Feb
@ Municipal
2–4
L
19 Feb
vs Aurora
2–0
W
15 Feb
@ Mictlán
0–0
D
1.6Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Achuapa – last 4
DDWD
25 Feb
vs Xelajú
0–0
D
21 Feb
@ Malacateco
1–1
D
17 Feb
vs Guastatoya
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Municipal
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Antigua GFC and Achuapa.
What is the prediction for Antigua GFC vs Achuapa?
Our pick is Antigua GFC to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Antigua GFC vs Achuapa?
On our numbers Antigua GFC have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Achuapa 11%.
How many goals will there be in Antigua GFC vs Achuapa?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Antigua GFC vs Achuapa?
Our predicted score is Antigua GFC 2–0 Achuapa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Antigua GFC vs Achuapa?
Antigua GFC vs Achuapa (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Thursday 5 March 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Pensativo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
