Value bet: San Martin Tucuman to win @ 3.00 – our chance 37% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSan Martin Tucuman to win ✗37% · @3.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.50
Atletico DE Rafaela vs San Martin Tucuman preview and prediction
The match
The Primera Nacional sees Atletico DE Rafaela take on San Martin Tucuman on Saturday 19 September, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Estadio Nuevo Monumental. Atletico DE Rafaela are 11th with 47 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while San Martin Tucuman sit 10th on 47 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Atletico DE Rafaela's last 5: LLWDD Most recently they lost to Gimnasia Jujuy 1–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
San Martin Tucuman's last 5: WLDWD Most recently they beat Agropecuario 3–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 3 May 2026, finished San Martin Tucuman 2–1 Atletico DE Rafaela.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 0.9 for Atletico DE Rafaela and 0.9 for San Martin Tucuman. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 75% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atletico DE Rafaela 36%, draw 28%, San Martin Tucuman 37%.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.53.
Value angle: San Martin Tucuman to win at 3.00 – 37% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Atletico DE Rafaela 0–0 San Martin Tucuman. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico DE Rafaela36%fair 2.79 · @2.60
Draw28%fair 3.62 · @2.62
San Martin Tucuman37%fair 2.74 · @3.00
1.74Expected goals
0.86Atletico DE Rafaela xG
0.88San Martin Tucuman xG
47%Both score
25%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–018%
0–115%
1–015%
1–113%
0–27%
2–07%
From our goals model: Atletico DE Rafaela 0.9 – 0.9 San Martin Tucuman expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Atletico DE Rafaela vs San Martin Tucuman?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Atletico DE Rafaela vs San Martin Tucuman?
On our numbers Atletico DE Rafaela have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 28% and San Martin Tucuman 37%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico DE Rafaela vs San Martin Tucuman?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 25% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico DE Rafaela vs San Martin Tucuman?
Our predicted score is Atletico DE Rafaela 0–0 San Martin Tucuman, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Atletico DE Rafaela vs San Martin Tucuman?
Atletico DE Rafaela vs San Martin Tucuman (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nuevo Monumental.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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