Primera Nacional · ArgentinaPatronato vs Almagro prediction & analysis
Patronato to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Patronato 1.5 – 0.5 Almagro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Patronato are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 14% for Almagro.
Patronato have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (1W 3D 2L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 2.0 per game. Almagro have 6 points from their last 6 (1W 3D 2L), averaging 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 2.0 goals (1.5 for Patronato, 0.5 for Almagro). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (21%), 2–0 (16%), 0–0 (14%).
Our pick is Patronato to win at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.67 is better than our fair price of 1.54, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Patronato to win ✗ | 65% | 1.54 | 1.67 ▲ |
| Double chance | Patronato or draw ✗ | 86% | 1.16 | 1.15 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 55% | 1.81 | 1.55 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 58% | 1.72 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.45 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 48% | 2.08 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Patronato / FT Patronato ✗ | 38% | 2.63 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 21% | 4.77 | – |
Form
Patronato – last 6
| 26 Aug | vs Atlanta | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | vs Gimnasia Jujuy | 3–3 | D |
| 15 Aug | @ Colon Santa Fe | 0–3 | L |
| 9 Aug | @ Colegiales | 2–2 | D |
| 1 Aug | vs Quilmes | 3–3 | D |
| 26 Jul | @ Midland | 0–1 | L |
Almagro – last 6
| 22 Aug | vs Colegiales | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Aug | @ Deportivo Moron | 0–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | @ Quilmes | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Aug | vs Gimnasia Y Tiro | 0–2 | L |
| 1 Aug | vs Midland | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Jul | @ Atlanta | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Patronato and Almagro.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tristan Suarez | 36 | +18 | 64 |
| 2 |  Atlanta | 36 | +8 | 62 |
| 3 |  Temperley | 36 | +12 | 61 |
| 4 |  Gimnasia Jujuy | 36 | +4 | 58 |
| 5 |  Midland | 36 | +14 | 55 |
| 6 |  Deportivo Maipu | 36 | +9 | 52 |
| 7 |  Colegiales | 36 | +4 | 52 |
| 8 |  Gimnasia Y Tiro | 36 | +2 | 52 |
| 9 |  San Martin S.J. | 36 | +6 | 51 |
| 10 |  San Martin Tucuman | 36 | +2 | 47 |
| 11 |  Atletico DE Rafaela | 36 | -6 | 47 |
| 12 |  Agropecuario | 36 | -8 | 46 |
| 13 |  Quilmes | 36 | +3 | 45 |
| 14 |  Chacarita Juniors | 36 | -6 | 42 |
| 15 |  Almagro | 36 | -11 | 42 |
| 16 |  Patronato | 36 | -6 | 38 |
| 17 |  Nueva Chicago | 36 | -11 | 37 |
| 18 |  Club Atlético Güemes | 36 | -34 | 27 |
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San Telmo0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Patronato vs Almagro?
Our pick is Patronato to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Patronato vs Almagro?
On our numbers Patronato have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Almagro 14%.
How many goals will there be in Patronato vs Almagro?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
When is Patronato vs Almagro?
Patronato vs Almagro (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.