Value bet: Almirante Brown to win @ 3.85 – our chance 29% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultTristan Suarez to win ✓46% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.35
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗57% · @1.40
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.26
Tristan Suarez vs Almirante Brown preview and prediction
The match
Almirante Brown travel to Estadio 20 de Octubre in the Primera Nacional on Sunday 16 August (19:00 WAT) to face Tristan Suarez. Tristan Suarez are 1st with 64 points from 36 games (top of the table), while Almirante Brown sit 6th on 51 points (in the top half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Tristan Suarez's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Gimnasia Jujuy 2–0 away. They average 1.2 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Almirante Brown's last 5: WWDDD Most recently they beat Ciudad de Bolívar 2–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.6 goals: 1.0 for Tristan Suarez and 0.7 for Almirante Brown. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 75% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tristan Suarez 46%, draw 25%, Almirante Brown 29%.
Both teams to score: no (57%) at 1.40.
Value angle: Almirante Brown to win at 3.85 – 29% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Tristan Suarez 0–0 Almirante Brown. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tristan Suarez46%fair 2.18 · @2.15
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @2.70
Almirante Brown29%fair 3.47 · @3.85
1.62Expected goals
0.96Tristan Suarez xG
0.66Almirante Brown xG
43%Both score
25%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–020%
1–019%
0–113%
1–113%
2–09%
2–16%
From our goals model: Tristan Suarez 1.0 – 0.7 Almirante Brown expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tristan Suarez to win✓
46%
2.18
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.35
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.40
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
1.93
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.28
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
92%
1.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
55%
1.81
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
27%
3.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.26
–
Form
Tristan Suarez – last 6
WWWWLD
10 Aug
@ Gimnasia Jujuy
2–0
W
3 Aug
@ Club Atlético Güemes
3–1
W
25 Jul
vs Chacarita Juniors
1–0
W
11 Jul
vs Nueva Chicago
1–0
W
4 Jul
@ Temperley
0–1
L
21 Jun
@ Chacarita Juniors
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Almirante Brown – last 6
WWDDDW
8 Aug
vs Ciudad de Bolívar
2–0
W
2 Aug
vs Racing Cordoba
2–0
W
26 Jul
@ Atletico Mitre
0–0
D
17 Jul
vs CA Estudiantes
0–0
D
11 Jul
@ All Boys
1–1
D
4 Jul
vs Los Andes
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tristan Suarez and Almirante Brown.
What is the prediction for Tristan Suarez vs Almirante Brown?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Tristan Suarez vs Almirante Brown?
On our numbers Tristan Suarez have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Almirante Brown 29%.
How many goals will there be in Tristan Suarez vs Almirante Brown?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 25% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tristan Suarez vs Almirante Brown?
Our predicted score is Tristan Suarez 0–0 Almirante Brown, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.
When is Tristan Suarez vs Almirante Brown?
Tristan Suarez vs Almirante Brown (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio 20 de Octubre.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Gimnasia Jujuy1
San Martin S.J.0
San Martin Tucuman2
Temperley3