Primera Nacional · Argentina · Estadio La Ciudadela
San Martin Tucuman vs Deportivo Madryn prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.46 · bookmaker 1.35 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: San Martin Tucuman 1.3 – 0.6 Deportivo Madryn expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
San Martin Tucuman hold the edge on home soil with a 57% chance of winning, against 21% for Deportivo Madryn.
San Martin Tucuman have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.8 per game. Deportivo Madryn have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded.
We expect around 2.0 goals (1.3 for San Martin Tucuman, 0.6 for Deportivo Madryn). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (19%), 0–0 (14%), 2–0 (12%).
In their last 1 meeting, San Martin Tucuman have won 0, Deportivo Madryn have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 69% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.35 is close to our fair price of 1.46.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | San Martin Tucuman to win ✗ | 57% | 1.74 | 1.83 ▲ |
| Double chance | San Martin Tucuman or draw ✓ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.11 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 54% | 1.84 | 1.42 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 58% | 1.73 | 1.65 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 69% | 1.46 | 1.35 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 86% | 1.16 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 49% | 2.04 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT San Martin Tucuman / FT San Martin Tucuman ✗ | 32% | 3.14 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 19% | 5.37 | – |
Form
San Martin Tucuman – last 6
| 9 Aug | vs San Martin S.J. | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Aug | @ Nueva Chicago | 1–2 | L |
| 25 Jul | vs Temperley | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Jul | @ Deportivo Maipu | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Jul | vs Almagro | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Jul | @ Patronato | 1–0 | W |
Deportivo Madryn – last 6
| 8 Aug | @ CA Estudiantes | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Aug | vs All Boys | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Jul | @ Los Andes | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Jul | @ Deportivo Moron | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Jul | vs Colon Santa Fe | 1–2 | L |
| 21 Jun | vs Los Andes | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 29 Mar 2026 | Deportivo Madryn v San Martin Tucuman | 1–1 |
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Godoy Cruz | 36 | +20 | 66 |
| 2 |  Ferro Carril Oeste | 36 | +7 | 66 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Moron | 36 | +16 | 61 |
| 4 |  Deportivo Madryn | 36 | +21 | 60 |
| 5 |  Colon Santa Fe | 36 | +18 | 60 |
| 6 |  Almirante Brown | 36 | +4 | 51 |
| 7 |  Ciudad de Bolívar | 36 | -3 | 51 |
| 8 |  CA Estudiantes | 36 | 0 | 49 |
| 9 |  Chaco For Ever | 36 | +2 | 46 |
| 10 |  Los Andes | 36 | +1 | 43 |
| 11 |  All Boys | 36 | -8 | 41 |
| 12 |  San Telmo | 36 | -11 | 41 |
| 13 |  Atletico Mitre | 36 | -11 | 40 |
| 14 |  Racing Cordoba | 36 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 |  Defensores De Belgrano | 36 | -9 | 39 |
| 16 |  Central Norte | 36 | -9 | 38 |
| 17 |  Acassuso | 36 | -10 | 35 |
| 18 |  San Miguel | 36 | -15 | 33 |
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Temperley3Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for San Martin Tucuman vs Deportivo Madryn?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win San Martin Tucuman vs Deportivo Madryn?
On our numbers San Martin Tucuman have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Deportivo Madryn 21%.
How many goals will there be in San Martin Tucuman vs Deportivo Madryn?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
When is San Martin Tucuman vs Deportivo Madryn?
San Martin Tucuman vs Deportivo Madryn (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio La Ciudadela.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.