Value bet: Deportivo Moron to win @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportivo Moron to win ✓57% · @1.95
Double chanceDeportivo Moron or draw ✓79% · @1.13
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓69% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.34
Deportivo Moron vs CA Estudiantes preview and prediction
The match
Deportivo Moron host CA Estudiantes in the Primera Nacional on Sunday 24 May, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano. Deportivo Moron are 3rd with 61 points from 36 games (in the top four), while CA Estudiantes sit 8th on 49 points (in the top half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Deportivo Moron's last 4: LLWW Most recently they lost to All Boys 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
CA Estudiantes's last 3: WLL Most recently they beat Chacarita Juniors 3–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Deportivo Moron arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.3 for Deportivo Moron and 0.6 for CA Estudiantes. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Deportivo Moron 57%, draw 22%, CA Estudiantes 21%.
Safer route: Deportivo Moron or draw (79%) at 1.13.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.50.
Value angle: Deportivo Moron to win at 1.95 – 57% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 69% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Deportivo Moron 1–0 CA Estudiantes. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Deportivo Moron57%fair 1.76 · @1.95
Draw22%fair 4.54 · @2.70
CA Estudiantes21%fair 4.70 · @4.50
1.95Expected goals
1.32Deportivo Moron xG
0.63CA Estudiantes xG
48%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
0–014%
2–012%
1–112%
0–19%
2–18%
From our goals model: Deportivo Moron 1.3 – 0.6 CA Estudiantes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Moron to win✓
57%
1.76
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Deportivo Moron or draw✓
79%
1.27
1.13
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.62
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
87%
1.16
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportivo Moron / FT Deportivo Moron✓
31%
3.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.34
–
Form
Deportivo Moron – last 4
LLWW
19 May
@ All Boys
0–1
L
23 Apr
vs Midland
1–2
L
5 Apr
vs San Telmo
1–0
W
26 Feb
@ Godoy Cruz
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
CA Estudiantes – last 3
WLL
29 Mar
@ Chacarita Juniors
3–0
W
2 Mar
vs Almirante Brown
0–1
L
23 Feb
@ Atletico Mitre
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportivo Moron and CA Estudiantes.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Moron vs CA Estudiantes?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Deportivo Moron vs CA Estudiantes?
On our numbers Deportivo Moron have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 22% and CA Estudiantes 21%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Moron vs CA Estudiantes?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Moron vs CA Estudiantes?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Moron 1–0 CA Estudiantes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Moron vs CA Estudiantes?
Deportivo Moron vs CA Estudiantes (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Chacarita Juniors1
Almagro0
Agropecuario0
Quilmes0
Club Atlético Güemes1
Patronato0