Value bet: Deportivo Moron to win @ 2.50 – our chance 45% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportivo Moron to win45% · @2.50
Double chanceDeportivo Moron or draw74% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score51% · @1.44
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals73% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–117% · fair 5.83
Almagro vs Deportivo Moron preview and prediction
The match
The Primera Nacional sees Almagro take on Deportivo Moron on Saturday 28 March, kicking off at 19:30 (WAT) at Estadio Tres de Febrero. Almagro are 15th with 42 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while Deportivo Moron sit 3rd on 61 points (in the top four). A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Almagro's last 3: DLD Most recently they drew with Midland 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 0.8 for Almagro and 1.1 for Deportivo Moron. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 73% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Safer route: Deportivo Moron or draw (74%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.44.
Value angle: Deportivo Moron to win at 2.50 – 45% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Deportivo Moron or draw – a 74% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Almagro 0–1 Deportivo Moron. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Almagro26%fair 3.86 · @3.75
Draw29%fair 3.49 · @2.30
Deportivo Moron45%fair 2.20 · @2.50
1.88Expected goals
0.76Almagro xG
1.12Deportivo Moron xG
49%Both score
27%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–117%
0–015%
1–113%
1–012%
0–210%
1–27%
From our goals model: Almagro 0.8 – 1.1 Deportivo Moron expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Moron to win
45%
2.20
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Deportivo Moron or draw
74%
1.35
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
51%
1.96
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
53%
1.87
1.83
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
73%
1.38
1.25
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
88%
1.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
51%
1.95
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportivo Moron / FT Deportivo Moron
25%
4.00
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
17%
5.83
–
Form
Almagro – last 3
DLD
15 Mar
@ Midland
1–1
D
28 Feb
@ Gimnasia Y Tiro
0–2
L
14 Feb
@ Atletico DE Rafaela
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Deportivo Moron – last 1
W
26 Feb
@ Godoy Cruz
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Almagro and Deportivo Moron.
What is the prediction for Almagro vs Deportivo Moron?
Our pick is Deportivo Moron or draw with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Almagro vs Deportivo Moron?
On our numbers Almagro have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Deportivo Moron 45%.
How many goals will there be in Almagro vs Deportivo Moron?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 27% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Almagro vs Deportivo Moron?
Our predicted score is Almagro 0–1 Deportivo Moron, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Almagro vs Deportivo Moron?
Almagro vs Deportivo Moron (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Tres de Febrero.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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