Value bet: Ilves to win @ 2.76 – our chance 39% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultIlves to win ✗39% · @2.76
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 10.24
Lahti vs Ilves preview and prediction
The match
Lahti host Ilves in the Veikkausliiga on Saturday 30 May, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Lahden Stadion. Lahti are 1st with 39 points from 27 games, while Ilves sit 2nd on 38 points. Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Lahti's last 5: WLDWD Most recently they beat Mariehamn 1–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Ilves's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Turku PS 1–0 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Ilves arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Lahti and 1.3 for Ilves. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lahti 37%, draw 24%, Ilves 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Ilves to win at 2.76 – 39% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Lahti 1–1 Ilves. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lahti37%fair 2.71 · @2.42
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.15
Ilves39%fair 2.57 · @2.76
2.61Expected goals
1.28Lahti xG
1.32Ilves xG
59%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Lahti 1.3 – 1.3 Ilves expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ilves to win✗
39%
2.57
2.76 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.68
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.89
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ilves / FT Ilves✗
22%
4.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
10.24
–
Form
Lahti – last 6
WLDWDL
26 May
@ Mariehamn
1–0
W
23 May
@ KuPS
1–2
L
18 May
vs VPS
1–1
D
13 May
vs MP
3–1
W
10 May
vs Mariehamn
1–1
D
4 May
@ HJK Helsinki
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Ilves – last 6
WWLWWD
27 May
vs Turku PS
1–0
W
23 May
vs Gnistan
2–0
W
20 May
vs Inter Turku
1–3
L
13 May
@ P-Iirot
4–0
W
8 May
vs AC Oulu
1–0
W
2 May
@ SJK
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lahti and Ilves.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Lahti vs Ilves?
On our numbers Lahti have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ilves 39%.
How many goals will there be in Lahti vs Ilves?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lahti vs Ilves?
Our predicted score is Lahti 1–1 Ilves, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Lahti vs Ilves?
Lahti vs Ilves (Veikkausliiga) kicks off on Saturday 30 May 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Lahden Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
