Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultHJK Helsinki to win ✓70% · @1.20
Double chanceHJK Helsinki or draw ✓87% · fair 1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗79% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗14% · fair 7.39
HJK Helsinki vs Mariehamn preview and prediction
The match
Mariehamn travel to Bolt Arena in the Veikkausliiga on Saturday 30 May (13:00 WAT) to face HJK Helsinki. HJK Helsinki are 2nd with 59 points from 32 games, while Mariehamn sit 6th on 19 points. A gap of 40 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
HJK Helsinki's last 5: WLWWD Most recently they beat MyPa 11–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 3.2 per game.
Mariehamn's last 5: LLWDW Most recently they lost to Lahti 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
HJK Helsinki arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 2.0 for HJK Helsinki and 0.7 for Mariehamn. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 57%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: HJK Helsinki 70%, draw 17%, Mariehamn 13%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – 55% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.62, above our fair price of 1.56, so there is value in it. Predicted score: HJK Helsinki 2–0 Mariehamn. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
HJK Helsinki70%fair 1.43 · @1.20
Draw17%fair 5.72 · @5.50
Mariehamn13%fair 7.94 · @13.00
2.73Expected goals
2.04HJK Helsinki xG
0.69Mariehamn xG
55%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–014%
1–013%
2–19%
3–09%
1–19%
0–07%
From our goals model: HJK Helsinki 2.0 – 0.7 Mariehamn expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
HJK Helsinki to win✓
70%
1.43
1.20
Double chance
HJK Helsinki or draw✓
87%
1.14
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
1.15
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.62
Half-time result
HJK Helsinki ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT HJK Helsinki / FT HJK Helsinki✗
45%
2.23
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
14%
7.39
–
Form
HJK Helsinki – last 6
WLWWDD
26 May
vs MyPa
11–1
W
22 May
@ VPS
1–2
L
13 May
@ Rops
4–0
W
4 May
vs Lahti
1–0
W
29 Apr
@ Inter Turku
1–1
D
26 Apr
@ KuPS
1–1
D
3.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Mariehamn – last 6
LLWDWL
26 May
vs Lahti
0–1
L
23 May
@ FF Jaro
0–3
L
13 May
vs PuiU Helsinki
3–0
W
10 May
@ Lahti
1–1
D
28 Apr
@ HPS
2–1
W
10 Apr
@ SJK
0–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between HJK Helsinki and Mariehamn.
What is the prediction for HJK Helsinki vs Mariehamn?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win HJK Helsinki vs Mariehamn?
On our numbers HJK Helsinki have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Mariehamn 13%.
How many goals will there be in HJK Helsinki vs Mariehamn?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for HJK Helsinki vs Mariehamn?
Our predicted score is HJK Helsinki 2–0 Mariehamn, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is HJK Helsinki vs Mariehamn?
HJK Helsinki vs Mariehamn (Veikkausliiga) kicks off on Saturday 30 May 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Bolt Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
