Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: FF Jaro to win @ 1.88 – our chance 64% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFF Jaro to win ✓64% · @1.88
Double chanceFF Jaro or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.36
FF Jaro vs Mariehamn preview and prediction
The match
The Veikkausliiga sees FF Jaro take on Mariehamn on Saturday 23 May, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Project Liv Arena. FF Jaro are 5th with 21 points from 27 games, while Mariehamn sit 6th on 19 points. Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
FF Jaro's last 5: LLLWD Most recently they lost to KuPS 0–3 away. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Mariehamn's last 5: WDWLW Most recently they beat PuiU Helsinki 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Mariehamn arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.8 for FF Jaro and 0.7 for Mariehamn. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: FF Jaro 64%, draw 23%, Mariehamn 14%.
Safer route: FF Jaro or draw (86%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.80.
Value angle: FF Jaro to win at 1.88 – 64% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was FF Jaro or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: FF Jaro 1–0 Mariehamn. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FF Jaro64%fair 1.57 · @1.88
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @3.40
Mariehamn14%fair 7.40 · @3.80
2.41Expected goals
1.75FF Jaro xG
0.66Mariehamn xG
53%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: FF Jaro 1.8 – 0.7 Mariehamn expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FF Jaro to win✓
64%
1.57
1.88 ▲
Double chance
FF Jaro or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Half-time result
FF Jaro ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FF Jaro / FT FF Jaro✓
40%
2.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.36
–
Form
FF Jaro – last 6
LLLWDW
20 May
@ KuPS
0–3
L
13 May
@ VJS
3–5
L
9 May
@ Inter Turku
0–2
L
28 Apr
@ GBK
2–0
W
24 Apr
@ SJK
1–1
D
15 Apr
@ AC Oulu
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Mariehamn – last 5
WDWLW
13 May
vs PuiU Helsinki
3–0
W
10 May
@ Lahti
1–1
D
28 Apr
@ HPS
2–1
W
10 Apr
@ SJK
0–3
L
5 Mar
vs Lahti
4–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FF Jaro and Mariehamn.
Our pick is FF Jaro or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win FF Jaro vs Mariehamn?
On our numbers FF Jaro have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Mariehamn 14%.
How many goals will there be in FF Jaro vs Mariehamn?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FF Jaro vs Mariehamn?
Our predicted score is FF Jaro 1–0 Mariehamn, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is FF Jaro vs Mariehamn?
FF Jaro vs Mariehamn (Veikkausliiga) kicks off on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Project Liv Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
