Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Gnistan to win @ 3.30 – our chance 33% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultIlves to win ✓47% · @1.97
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.89
Ilves vs Gnistan preview and prediction
The match
The Veikkausliiga sees Ilves take on Gnistan on Saturday 23 May, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Tammela Stadium. Ilves are 2nd with 38 points from 27 games, while Gnistan sit 5th on 46 points.
Form guide
Ilves's last 5: LWWDL Most recently they lost to Inter Turku 1–3 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Gnistan's last 5: WDWDD Most recently they beat Inter Turku 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Gnistan arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.7 for Ilves and 1.4 for Gnistan. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score in 64% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ilves 47%, draw 20%, Gnistan 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.57.
Value angle: Gnistan to win at 3.30 – 33% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Ilves 1–1 Gnistan. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ilves47%fair 2.14 · @1.97
Draw20%fair 4.92 · @3.55
Gnistan33%fair 3.04 · @3.30
3.05Expected goals
1.68Ilves xG
1.36Gnistan xG
64%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–27%
2–07%
0–16%
From our goals model: Ilves 1.7 – 1.4 Gnistan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ilves to win✓
47%
2.14
1.97
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.26
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.55
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.42
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.55
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ilves / FT Ilves✓
27%
3.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.89
–
Form
Ilves – last 6
LWWDLD
20 May
vs Inter Turku
1–3
L
13 May
@ P-Iirot
4–0
W
8 May
vs AC Oulu
1–0
W
2 May
@ SJK
1–1
D
24 Apr
@ VPS
2–3
L
21 Feb
vs AC Oulu
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Gnistan – last 6
WDWDDW
5 May
vs Inter Turku
2–0
W
24 Apr
@ Turku PS
1–1
D
14 Apr
@ POHU
2–0
W
28 Mar
@ Kooteepee
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Lahti
0–0
D
14 Feb
@ Turku PS
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ilves and Gnistan.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Ilves vs Gnistan?
On our numbers Ilves have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Gnistan 33%.
How many goals will there be in Ilves vs Gnistan?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ilves vs Gnistan?
Our predicted score is Ilves 1–1 Gnistan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Ilves vs Gnistan?
Ilves vs Gnistan (Veikkausliiga) kicks off on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Tammela Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
