Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Tromso to win @ 1.73 – our chance 67% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultTromso to win ✓67% · @1.73
Double chanceTromso or draw ✓87% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.75
Tromso vs Valerenga preview and prediction
The match
The Eliteserien sees Tromso take on Valerenga on Saturday 11 July, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT) at Alfheim. Tromso are 6th with 40 points from 26 games (in the top half), while Valerenga sit 8th on 32 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Tromso's last 5: DDLWD Most recently they drew with KFUM Oslo 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Valerenga's last 5: WDWLL Most recently they beat Fredrikstad 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 2.0 for Tromso and 0.7 for Valerenga. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tromso 67%, draw 20%, Valerenga 13%.
Safer route: Tromso or draw (87%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Tromso to win at 1.73 – 67% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Tromso or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Tromso 1–0 Valerenga. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tromso67%fair 1.49 · @1.73
Draw20%fair 5.12 · @3.70
Valerenga13%fair 7.42 · @4.50
2.74Expected goals
1.99Tromso xG
0.75Valerenga xG
58%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–09%
0–06%
From our goals model: Tromso 2.0 – 0.7 Valerenga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tromso to win✓
67%
1.49
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Tromso or draw✓
87%
1.16
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.87
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.44
Half-time result
Tromso ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tromso / FT Tromso✓
43%
2.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.75
–
Form
Tromso – last 6
DDLWDW
29 May
@ KFUM Oslo
0–0
D
25 May
vs Aalesund
1–1
D
29 Apr
vs Brann
0–5
L
19 Apr
@ Sarpsborg 08 FF
1–0
W
15 Apr
vs Lillestrom
0–0
D
6 Apr
vs Rosenborg
2–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Valerenga – last 6
WDWLLL
4 Jul
vs Fredrikstad
3–1
W
18 Jun
@ IFK Goteborg
1–1
D
29 May
vs Kristiansund BK
3–1
W
25 May
@ Start
0–2
L
8 May
@ Ham-Kam
0–1
L
26 Apr
@ Molde
1–5
L
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tromso and Valerenga.
Our pick is Tromso or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Tromso vs Valerenga?
On our numbers Tromso have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Valerenga 13%.
How many goals will there be in Tromso vs Valerenga?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tromso vs Valerenga?
Our predicted score is Tromso 1–0 Valerenga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Tromso vs Valerenga?
Tromso vs Valerenga (Eliteserien) kicks off on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Alfheim.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
