Value bet: Fredrikstad to win @ 2.90 – our chance 39% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLillestrom to win ✓39% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗8% · fair 11.90
Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom preview and prediction
The match
Fredrikstad host Lillestrom in the Eliteserien on Saturday 11 July, with kick-off at 13:00 (WAT) at Fredrikstad Stadion. Fredrikstad are 12th with 30 points from 26 games (in the bottom half), while Lillestrom sit 4th on 45 points (in the top four). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Fredrikstad's last 5: LWDLL Most recently they lost to Valerenga 1–3 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Lillestrom's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to FC Midtjylland 0–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Fredrikstad arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.4 for Fredrikstad and 1.4 for Lillestrom. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 62%.
Value angle: Fredrikstad to win at 2.90 – 39% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Fredrikstad 1–1 Lillestrom. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fredrikstad39%fair 2.60 · @2.90
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.45
Lillestrom39%fair 2.59 · @2.30
2.82Expected goals
1.41Fredrikstad xG
1.41Lillestrom xG
62%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–18%
1–08%
1–28%
2–18%
0–06%
From our goals model: Fredrikstad 1.4 – 1.4 Lillestrom expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lillestrom to win✓
39%
2.59
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.62
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.38
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lillestrom / FT Lillestrom✗
22%
4.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
8%
11.90
–
Form
Fredrikstad – last 6
LWDLLW
4 Jul
@ Valerenga
1–3
L
29 May
vs Start
2–1
W
25 May
@ Sandefjord
1–1
D
9 May
@ Sarpsborg 08 FF
1–2
L
19 Apr
@ Kristiansund BK
0–2
L
7 Apr
@ Aalesund
3–2
W
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Lillestrom – last 6
LLLLWD
20 Jun
@ FC Midtjylland
0–1
L
25 May
@ Ham-Kam
0–2
L
20 May
vs Kristiansund BK
1–2
L
10 May
@ Rosenborg
0–2
L
3 May
vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
4–0
W
15 Apr
@ Tromso
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fredrikstad and Lillestrom.
What is the prediction for Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom?
On our numbers Fredrikstad have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Lillestrom 39%.
How many goals will there be in Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom?
Our predicted score is Fredrikstad 1–1 Lillestrom, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom?
Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom (Eliteserien) kicks off on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Fredrikstad Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
