Tepatitlán vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca preview and prediction
The match
Tepatitlán host Alebrijes de Oaxaca in the Liga De Expansión MX on Saturday 4 April, with kick-off at 03:00 (WAT). Tepatitlán are 16th with 7 points from 15 games (in the bottom three), while Alebrijes de Oaxaca sit 9th on 22 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Tepatitlán's last 5: DWLWL Most recently they drew with Cancún 2–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca's last 5: DLWLW Most recently they drew with Leones Negros UDG 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 2.8 conceded.
Tepatitlán arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.0 for Tepatitlán and 0.8 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 57%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tepatitlán 67%, draw 19%, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 14%.
Safer route: Tepatitlán or draw (86%) at 1.13.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.73.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Tepatitlán 2–0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tepatitlán67%fair 1.49 · @1.54
Draw19%fair 5.20 · @4.10
Alebrijes de Oaxaca14%fair 7.31 · @5.70
2.81Expected goals
2.03Tepatitlán xG
0.78Alebrijes de Oaxaca xG
57%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Tepatitlán 2.0 – 0.8 Alebrijes de Oaxaca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tepatitlán to win✓
67%
1.49
1.54
Double chance
Tepatitlán or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.77
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.42
Half-time result
Tepatitlán ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tepatitlán / FT Tepatitlán✓
43%
2.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✓
12%
8.04
–
Form
Tepatitlán – last 6
DWLWLW
29 Mar
@ Cancún
2–2
D
21 Mar
vs Venados FC
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Monarcas
2–3
L
9 Mar
vs Mineros de Zacatecas
4–0
W
1 Mar
@ Tlaxcala
0–1
L
21 Feb
vs Irapuato
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Alebrijes de Oaxaca – last 6
DLWLWL
28 Mar
vs Leones Negros UDG
1–1
D
21 Mar
@ CA La Paz
0–4
L
14 Mar
vs Tapatío
4–3
W
8 Mar
@ Irapuato
2–6
L
28 Feb
vs Dorados
3–2
W
22 Feb
@ Atlante FC
0–1
L
1.7Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tepatitlán and Alebrijes de Oaxaca.
What is the prediction for Tepatitlán vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Tepatitlán vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
On our numbers Tepatitlán have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Alebrijes de Oaxaca 14%.
How many goals will there be in Tepatitlán vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tepatitlán vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Our predicted score is Tepatitlán 2–0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Tepatitlán vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Tepatitlán vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Irapuato3